State of the Climate 2016

Future climate

Observed regional trends in rainfall and temperature can seem small when compared to daily, monthly and seasonal climate variability. However, such changes in the average climate, experienced over multiple decades, can have a large influence on ecosystems, agriculture and the built environment. In particular, the changing nature of rainfall and temperature extremes can have a noticeable impact.

As Australia's climate evolves, a number of long-term changes, such as an increase in mean temperatures, are almost certain. The degree of change in temperature over the next few decades is relatively clear, while the extent to which the climate will change later in the century depends on the level of emissions now and into the future.

The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, with other research institutions around Australia, have recently completed Climate Change in Australia, which describes likely changes to Australia's climate over the coming century. The report and accompanying interactive materials are available at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au.

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Further information

The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO monitor, archive, analyse, model, interpret and communicate Australia's observed and future weather and climate.

Collaboratively we contribute to research that underpins the health, security and prosperity of Australia in areas such as weather and ocean prediction, hazard prediction and warnings, climate variability and climate change, water supply and management, and adaptation to climate impacts.

Further information about the content of this report, and a list of references is online.

Bureau of Meteorology
www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate
helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au

CSIRO
www.csiro.au/state-of-the-climate
csiroenquiries@csiro.au
1300 363 400

Additional information about climate change and projections for Australia can be found at:
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER

To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

It is advised that users seek additional information or expert scientific advice before using the contents of this report in any specific situation.

© 2016 Commonwealth of Australia

Key points

  • Australian temperatures are projected to continue increasing with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days.
  • An increase in the number of days with weather conducive to fire in southern and eastern Australia is projected.
  • Extreme rainfall events are likely to increase in intensity by the end of the century across most of Australia.
  • Winter and spring rainfall is projected to decrease across southern continental Australia, with more time spent in drought.
  • Projections suggest fewer tropical cyclones will form in the southern hemisphere than are currently observed, but a higher proportion of those will be more intense, with ongoing large variability from decade to decade.
  • Past and ongoing emissions commit us to further sea-level rise around Australia in coming decades, with ongoing sea-level rise projected.
  • Oceans around Australia will warm further and acidification will continue—with significant impacts on marine ecosystems.

Why are Australia and the globe warming?

Energy comes from the Sun. In order to maintain stable temperatures at the Earth's surface, in the long run this incoming energy must be balanced by an equal amount of heat radiated back to space. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, act to increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, ocean and the atmosphere, by making it harder for the Earth to radiate this heat. This is called the greenhouse effect. Without any greenhouse gases, the Earth's surface would be much colder, with an average temperature of about -18 °C. For centuries prior to industrialisation the incoming sunlight and outgoing heat were balanced and global average temperatures were relatively steady, at a little under 15 °C. Now, mostly because of the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising and causing surface temperatures to increase. There is now an energy imbalance at the Earth's surface of 0.65–0.80 Wm-2 (averaged globally). The atmosphere and oceans will continue to warm until enough extra heat can escape to space to allow the Earth to return to balance. Because carbon dioxide increases persist in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, further warming and sea-level rise is locked in.