Climate outlook for January to April

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for January to March shows:

• above average rainfall is likely for far eastern coastal regions and for much of western and northern Australia
• rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for most remaining areas
• an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for parts of western and northern Australia
• warmer than average days are likely across large parts of the country
• warmer than average nights are very likely across almost all of Australia with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of western, northern and far eastern Australia

January to March

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for western and far northern WA, the north-west of the NT, northern and coastal Queensland, much of the NSW coast, and parts of southern and eastern SA.
• Rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for most remaining areas.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ for parts of Cape York Peninsula, and western and northern WA.

¹Unusually high rainfall is defined as the highest 20% of January to March rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Unusually warm nights likely across most of Australia

January to March

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for large parts of Australia while above average minimum temperatures are very likely across almost all of Australia.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be within the typical range for the season for central parts of the NSW coast and the Kimberley district of WA.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across Tasmania, western WA, and parts of SA, southern Queensland, western Victoria, western NSW and the far north of Cape York Peninsula, with the highest chances across Tasmania of up to 3.5 times the normal chance.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across Australia, particularly in the north and large areas in the east and west of the continent, where the likelihood is more than 3.5 times the normal chance.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of January to March days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates evolutions in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for the coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Global SSTs remain at near record levels as at 30 November, with temperatures since July falling just short of the record temperatures observed during 2023, yet above all other years since observations began in 1854. The sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate indicators such as ENSO and IOD may not behave or evolve as they have in the past.
• The Bureau's model suggests SSTs are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral thresholds (−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C) throughout the forecast period to February 2025. Of the 6 other climate models surveyed, two models suggest SSTs in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C) throughout December to February, which is sufficient time to be classified as a La Niña event, though this would be considered a very short-lived event compared to the historical record. All models forecast neutral ENSO values by March.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index had been below the negative IOD threshold (−0.40 °C) since mid-October. However, based on data for the week ending 1 December, the IOD index has returned to neutral levels. This is due to recent cyclone activity in the tropical east Indian Ocean, which significantly cooled the waters in the region. All but one of the surveyed climate models indicate that the IOD index is expected to return to neutral levels in December, in line with the typical IOD lifecycle.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is negative as at 1 December. It is forecast to be negative over the coming week before returning to neutral values.