Climate outlook for February to May

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• above average rainfall is likely for much of northern and western Australia and coastal parts of New South Wales and eastern Victoria.
• an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for parts of western and northern Australia.
• warmer than average days are likely across much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of the tropical north.
• warmer than average nights are very likely with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall likely to be above average for much of northern Australia and parts of western Australia and coastal NSW

February to April

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average over most of northern and western WA, most of the NT, northern and western Qld and coastal parts of NSW and eastern Victoria, with highest chances over parts of Cape York Peninsula. Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of western Tasmania.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ for the central NT, northern and eastern Qld and much of WA. The greatest chances of unusually high rainfall are across northern WA and the northern Cape York Peninsula where there is twice the usual chance of unusually high rainfall.

¹Unusually high rainfall is that in the highest 20% of February to April rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Unusually warm nights very likely across most of Australia

February to April

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of eastern and southern Australia and across the NT's Top End.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be within the typical range for the season for central parts of the NT, western Queensland and northern and scattered areas of southern WA, and a small region of central-eastern NSW.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of the southern two-thirds of Australia, and scattered parts of the far north.
• For February alone, maximum temperatures are likely to be below average for parts of northern and western WA.
• Above average minimum temperatures for February to April are very likely across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across Australia, particularly across much of eastern, northern and western Australia where the likelihood is more than 3.5 times the normal chance.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of February to April days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for the coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Global SSTs (sea surface temperatures) remain substantially above average. In the Australian region, December 2024 SSTs were the warmest on record for the month. Very warm ocean temperatures to Australia's north-west and to the east are likely contributing to our rainfall and temperature patterns.
• In the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral for the past 6 months, despite changes in sea surface temperature patterns consistent with a developing La Niña over this period. In recent observations, ocean and atmosphere indicators are showing signs of a stronger coupling, more consistent with a potential La Niña event.
• A continuation of Southern Oscillation Index values above threshold will likely see a La Niña event established for at least part of the summer of 2024–2025.
• Most models have ENSO returning to neutral by March.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral as of 5 January. The Bureau's model indicates that the IOD will remain neutral throughout the forecast period to May 2025. This is consistent with 4 other international climate models surveyed and typical IOD behaviour at this time of year.