Climate outlook for July to October

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for July to September shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the interior and east, with roughly equal chances of being above, below or near-average for western and south-eastern Australia.
• Warmer than average days are likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in parts of the far north, west and south-east.
• Warmer than average nights are likely to very likely across much of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures.

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Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall for parts of the interior, drier in parts of the south

July to September

• Above average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of the eastern two thirds of Australia except south-eastern parts of the country. Individual monthly forecasts indicate that the chance of above average rainfall increases across much of the country from August.
• July to September is within the northern Australian dry season. During this time, most of tropical northern Australia typically receives very low rainfall, with average rainfall less than 10 mm for the 3 months combined.
• There is a weak forecast signal for much of the south-east of Australia and Western Australia, including areas affected by prolonged dry conditions (South Australia's far south-east, western and central Victoria, and western parts of Western Australia). The absence of a strong signal means there is a roughly equal chance of above, below or near-average rainfall, with no strong indication of unusually wet or dry conditions.
• There is an increased chance of below average rainfall for the western half of Tasmania. This drier than average signal is strongest in July, where rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below average across much of Tasmania, as well as parts of western and south-western Western Australia, and large parts of the south-east mainland including Victoria.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days very likely in the north, west and south-east, warmer than average nights nationwide

July to September

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across much of Australia except in central inland areas, where there is a roughly equal chance of above or below average daytime temperatures.
• Enhanced cloud cover related to the forecast for above average rainfall is likely moderating the temperature forecast in central inland areas.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ in parts of the north, west and south-east where chances exceed 60% (3 times the normal likelihood).
• Above average minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across much of Australia, except parts of eastern South Australia and western New South Wales.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ across much of the country. Chances exceed 60% (3 times the normal likelihood) across much of far northern Australia, eastern Queensland and parts of south-eastern Australia.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of July to September days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during May 2025 were +0.62 °C above the 1991–2020 average, the warmest May on record since observations began in 1900. Since July 2024, SSTs have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 29 June 2025 shows warmer than average waters across much of the Australian region, with the exception of waters to Australia’s north including the Gulf of Carpentaria, Arafura Sea and Timor Sea, where the SST is close to average. Within 200 nautical miles of the western, southern and eastern coasts, SSTs are up to 2 °C warmer than average, with small patches off Australia's south-west more than 3 °C warmer than average.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Monthly averaged SSTs were second warmest on record for each respective month from January to May 2025.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Most international models assessed, including the Bureau’s, predict ENSO to persist in the neutral phase until at least December.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Most international models predict a shift towards a negative IOD pattern during late winter although the Bureau's model indicates that the potential for development is marginal.