Climate outlook for October to January

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for October to December shows:

• Above average rainfall is likely across much of the eastern half of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the eastern New South Wales.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of the eastern half of Australia

October to December

• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to 80% chance) for most of the eastern half of Australia, with the strongest chances over Cape York Peninsula.
• For parts of western Tasmania, rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance).
• Elsewhere, the forecast signal is weak, meaning roughly equal chances above or below average rainfall.
• During October and November, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms and showers as the wet season advances.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

October to December

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• For parts of coastal New South Wales, maximum temperatures have an equal likelihood of being above or below the average.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) in parts of northern and south-eastern Australia, with the strongest chances over Tasmania (50% to 70% chance).
• Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across most of the country, with the strongest chances across northern, central and eastern Australia (60% to over 80% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of October to December days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with August 2025 the third warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 21 September 2025 were warmer than average across much of the Australian region, particularly along the east coast. Near-average to slightly cooler-than-average waters are present off northern Australia and in the Great Australian Bight.
• Forecasts for October to December show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely to the north, east, and south-east of Australia, with near-average temperatures around southern Western Australia and South Australia. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. The Bureau's model suggests La Niña levels may be reached briefly during spring before returning to neutral in summer. Similarly, international models indicate some further cooling is likely, also reaching La Niña levels during spring, with all but one returning to neutral by the end of summer.
• A negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway, having met the negative IOD threshold (less than or equal to −0.4 °C) for at least 8 consecutive weeks. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout spring, with a return to neutral in early summer, consistent with all international models.