Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Above average rainfall is likely across parts of eastern Australia, with most of the remaining parts of the country showing roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of eastern New South Wales.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for parts of eastern Australia

November to January

• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to 80% chance) for eastern parts of Queensland, much of NSW, central and northern Victoria, and eastern Tasmania, as well as parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory.
• Elsewhere, the forecast signal is weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• From October to December, northern Australia typically experiences increasing storms and showers as the wet season advances. Tropical activity typically peaks in the January to March period.
• The strongest forecast signal is during November with rainfall likely to be above average (60% to 80% chance) for most of Australia, except southern and central Western Australia and Tasmania, where there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

November to January

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• For parts of coastal New South Wales, maximum temperatures have around an equal likelihood of being above or below the average.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) in parts of Victoria, Tasmania, and central-west Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across northern and south-eastern Australia, with the strongest chances across northern Australia (60% to over 80% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of November to January days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with September 2025 the third warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 19 October 2025 were warmer than average across much of the Australian region. Near-average SSTs surround Victoria and Tasmania.
• Forecasts for November to January show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely around most of Australia, especially to the south-east. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to just meet La Niña levels during spring, before returning to neutral during summer. This timing aligns with most international models assessed, although they generally show more cooling in the central tropical Pacific compared to the Bureau's model. An atmospheric response has been limited to date.
• A negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's model predicts the negative IOD event to continue throughout spring, with a return to neutral in early summer, consistent with all international models.