Climate outlook for February to May

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of Australia's south and north-west; a weak or mixed signal for rainfall elsewhere, meaning roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier 3 months.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across most of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Weak signal in the east; drier February to April for parts of Australia's south and north-west

February to April

• For much of eastern and central Australia, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for the three months. This means there are a range of possible outcomes, including above, below or near-average rainfall.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for much of northern and western Northern Territory, northern parts of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia, western Victoria, and western Tasmania.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

February to April

• Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including much of Tasmania and Western Australia, parts of eastern Australia, and parts of the far north.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with slightly lower chances (60 to 80% chance) across parts of southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north and parts of the east (over 80% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of February to April days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region have been in the top three warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with December 2025 the fourth warmest on record.
• SSTs for the week ending 4 January 2026 show warmer than average waters off much of western and north-eastern Australia. Cooler than average waters have emerged in the Tasman Sea and in the Gulf of Carpentaria in recent weeks.
• Forecasts for February to April show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, with notable warming predicted in the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• A weak La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's model predicts that temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain at La Niña levels until late summer before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April.