Climate outlook for April to July

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for April to June shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia except in parts of the tropical north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across much of Western Australia, Tasmania and the eastern and southern coasts of mainland Australia, with no clear warm or cool signal elsewhere.

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Rainfall—Summary

Below average April to June rainfall likely for most of Australia

April to June

• Rainfall over April to June as a whole is likely to be below average (60% to more than 80% chance) for most of Australia, except parts of far northern Australia where there are roughly equal chances of above, below or near-average rainfall.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (over 50% chance) for parts of south-east, eastern and northern Australia.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of tropical northern Australia typically receives very little rainfall. Over these areas, average monthly rainfall totals for May and June are usually less than 5 mm.
• In the nearer term, rainfall during the second week of March is likely (60% to more than 80%) to be above average for most of Australia, except for parts of the south‑ During the second half of the month, above‑average rainfall is likely over much of the tropical north, while below‑average rainfall is likely over parts of the central southern mainland, with only a weak signal for most remaining areas.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of April to June records between 1981 and 2018

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days across much of Australia; mixed outlook for overnight temperatures

April to June

• Maximum temperatures for autumn are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia and parts of far northern Australia.
• The chance of above average maximum temperatures is closer to 50% for northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, with below average maximum temperatures likely (60 to 75% chance) for some parts.
• Much of the southern half of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the strongest chances in and around western parts of Western Australia and eastern New South Wales (over 80% chance).
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across much of Western Australia as well as the eastern and southern coasts of Australia.
• There is no clear signal for minimum temperatures for most remaining inland areas of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 50% chance) for parts of south-western Australia and along parts of the New South Wales central coast.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of April to June days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during January 2026 were the sixth warmest on record in the Australian region and the fourth warmest for the global average.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 22 February 2026 shows warmer than average waters (up to 2 °C above average) persist off the NSW coast. Elsewhere in the Australian region, SSTs have warmed over the Coral Sea and coastal waters of Australia's east coast and cooled over waters to the west and north of Australia, compared to last week.
• Forecasts for March to May indicate warmer-than-average SSTs are likely for much of the region, especially off southern Australia. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The 2025–26 La Niña continues to weaken. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have been fluctuating around the La Niña threshold (−0.80 °C) since late January. Recent warming in the sub-surface suggests further decline of the event is likely in the coming weeks.
• While some models suggest the possibility of El Niño development from June, forecasts beyond autumn remain highly uncertain. The large spread of outcomes across models reflects the low predictability at long lead times typical for this time of year, with reliability expected to improve as autumn progresses.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral despite elevated IOD index values over the past few weeks. IOD events do not typically form during December to April, and these positive values are not expected to be sustained or at levels strong enough to form an event. Model forecasts expect the IOD to remain in a neutral state until at least the end of autumn 2026.