Climate outlook for May to August

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of eastern Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average May to July rainfall likely for much of eastern Australia

May to July

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from May to July is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for parts of eastern Australia, including south-eastern South Australia and eastern Tasmania, and in parts of south-west Australia.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Over these areas, average monthly rainfall totals for May, June and July are typically less than 5 mm.
• This rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, which show drier than average rainfall over areas of Australia. The extent varies between models with south-west and south-east Australia being the most consistent.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

May to July

• Maximum temperatures over May to July are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Most of the southern two-thirds of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across much of New South Wales, southern Queensland, Victoria, eastern Tasmania, and south-west Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 60% chance) for much of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia and Victoria, as well as the northern New South Wales coast and the far south-east of Queensland.
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of warmer than average temperatures, especially over the northern interior of Australia.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 19 April 2026 shows mostly near-average waters (within 0.4 °C of average) to the north, south and west of Australia, with some below average SSTs off Western Australia's Pilbara coast. Waters are warmer than average (up to 2 °C above average) along much of the east coast and Coral Sea, with highest anomalies off the New South Wales south coast.
• Forecasts for May to July indicate warmer-than-average SSTs are likely surrounding much of Australia reaching up to 2 °C warmer than average in parts of the Tasman Sea, with SSTs close to average to Australia's north, and to the west of Tasmania. Warmer waters can increase the atmospheric moisture and energy, raising the potential for more intense rainfall and weather systems when conditions are favourable.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist until at least late autumn, with all models indicating warming to levels consistent with El Niño by July.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is most likely to remain neutral until the end of autumn, with most models indicating the possibility of a positive IOD over winter–spring. A few models suggest IOD development could occur earlier, during late autumn. However, forecast uncertainty associated with the IOD is currently high, with models showing a large spread of possible outcomes.