Climate outlook for June to September

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for June to August shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of eastern Australia and south-west Western Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average June to August rainfall likely for much of eastern Australia and south-west Western Australia

June to August

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from June to August is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for central and southern Queensland, inland New South Wales, most of Victoria, southern South Australia and eastern Tasmania, as well as the South West Land Division of Western Australia.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• The dry signal over the three‑month period is heavily driven by stronger probabilities of below‑average rainfall emerging later in the season.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (50 to 60% chance) during June to August for parts of south-west Western Australia.
• This forecast period falls in the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Over this broad area, average monthly rainfall totals for June, July and August are typically less than 5 mm.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of June to August records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

June to August

• Maximum temperatures over June to August are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in parts of the north.
• For much of southern Australia, there is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across Tasmania, Victoria, eastern New South Wales, southern Queensland and south-eastern South Australia, as well as western parts of Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) for Tasmania, most of Victoria, much of eastern and southern New South Wales, the southern Queensland coast and south-eastern South Australia as well much of Western Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of June to August days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 3 May 2026 shows waters are close to average to the north, north-west and north-east of Australia. Waters are warmer than average (up to 2 °C below average) further south, especially along the NSW and eastern Tasmania coasts (up to 3 °C above average).
• SST forecasts for June to August indicate warmer-than-average waters around much of Australia, with temperatures up to 2 °C warmer than average in the Tasman Sea. Warmer waters can increase atmospheric moisture and energy, raising the potential for more intense rainfall and weather systems when conditions are favourable.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with substantial warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific observed in recent weeks. Models indicate further warming in the tropical Pacific with the development of El Niño likely during winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Models indicate the IOD is most likely to remain neutral until the end of autumn, with a positive IOD possible during winter–spring. However, forecast uncertainty associated with the IOD is currently high, with models showing a range of possible outcomes.