Climate outlook for July to October

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for July to September shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across most of southern, western, and parts of eastern Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average July to September rainfall likely across most of the south and west and parts of the east

July to September

• July to September rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for most of western and southern Australia, and parts of eastern Australia including southern and north-eastern New South Wales and south-east and central Queensland.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40 to 80% chance) across western parts of Western Australia, with the likelihood exceeding 60% for much of the South West Land Division.
• While there is an increased chance of above average rainfall across parts of the far north, this forecast period falls within the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 20 mm, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• Over southern and eastern Australia, this rainfall forecast from the Bureau's ACCESS-S model is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, which also show below average rainfall.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of July to September records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures across much of Australia

July to September

• July to September maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia south of the tropics.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance) across northern parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia.
• There is an increased chance (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of western and eastern Australia with the highest chances (over 80% chance) across western parts of Western Australia, eastern New South Wales and north-east Tasmania.
• For the month of July, maximum temperatures are likely to be cooler than average (60 to 75% chance) across large parts of northern and central Australia, but with high chances of above average temperatures prevailing further east and west.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia except in some parts of the north.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) in western and southern parts of Western Australia, and in the country's south-east, with highest chances along the eastern seaboard and in Tasmania.
• These temperature forecasts are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of warmer than average temperatures.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of July to September days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is underway. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are above El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators are consistent with an established event. Ocean-atmospheric coupling (when the ocean and atmosphere act to reinforce the El Niño state) is likely to sustain El Niño through until at least the end of the year.
• All models, including the Bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months. Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific. A strong El Niño signal in the Niño3.4 region does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Models suggest a positive IOD event is likely in the southern hemisphere winter-spring. However, model forecasts show a large variation in both the timing and strength of this potential event.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a strong positive phase, with forecasts indicating this pattern could continue into early July. A positive SAM in July may be partially offsetting the broader dry signal across much of NSW and southern Queensland.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 27 June 2026 shows waters are average to above average around most of Australia. Waters are especially warm along the New South Wales and eastern Tasmania coasts (peaking at around 3 to 4 °C above average). This general SST pattern is forecast to continue over the coming months.
• Globally SSTs are exceptionally warm, with May 2026 the warmest May on record for globally averaged ocean temperatures since 1900.