Climate outlook for October to January

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for October to December shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the west and central regions, below average in the south-east and far north.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of the west and central regions, below average in the south-east and far north.

October to December

• October to December rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Western Australia, South Australia except the south-east, the southern two-thirds of the Northern Territory, western and southern Queensland, and north-east New South Wales. During this outlook period, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms, and showers.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (50 to 80% chance) across much of southern and central parts of Western Australia and some southern parts of the Northern Territory. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of southern and eastern Victoria, Tasmania, northern parts of the Northern Territory's Top End, and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.
• For much of eastern Australia and parts of the north, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for October to December.
• For October alone, there is a broader dry signal with rainfall likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average for much of the Northern Territory, Queensland, and south-east Australia.
• The ACCESS-S rainfall forecast is consistent with international guidance, although there is slight variation between models in the likelihood of above average rainfall.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of October to December records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across much of Australia for the remainder of 2026

October to December

• October to December maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in some isolated parts of the tropical north.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of the southern half of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) across small parts of south-west Western Australia, eastern parts of South Australia, south-west Queensland, and most of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across almost all of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) across most of Australia, including a broad area where the likelihood exceeds 80%.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is consistent with international models. There is some variation in the likelihood of above average temperatures over the Top End and Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of October to December days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is well established and continues to strengthen.
• All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Models continue to suggest a positive IOD could develop during the southern hemisphere spring, although there is still uncertainty in the strength and duration of the event.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 20 September 2026 shows mostly warmer than average waters in near coastal areas around most of Australia but near-to-cooler than average waters to the north (excluding some northern coastal areas) and in the Coral Sea. Waters are especially warm along the southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania coasts.
• Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• More broadly, global (60°S to 60°N) SSTs for August 2026 were the warmest on record, at 1.04 °C above the 1961–1990 average in the NOAA ERSSTv5 dataset.