Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across areas of western and central Australia as well as parts of the east. Below average rainfall is likely in the north and south-east.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely across areas of western, central and eastern Australia, below average in parts of the north and south-east.

November to January

• November to January rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of the southern and central Western Australia extending into southern Northern Territory, western and northern South Australia, and inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (40 to 60% chance) across southern Western Australia as well as small parts of southern Northern Territory, western South Australia, and inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for most of Tasmania as well as parts of Victoria, Northern Territory's Top End and coast around the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Queensland and northwestern coastal Western Australia.
• For most other areas of northern Australia and the south-east, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for November to January.
• During this outlook period, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms, and showers.
• For November, the wet signal in Western Australia is more pronounced, extending across much of the state. The chance of above average rainfall for parts of Queensland and New South Wales is higher later in the outlook period than in November.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of November to January records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across Australia

November to January

• November to January maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 50% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) across areas in eastern New South Wales, far eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and far northern Cape York Peninsula.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across almost all of Australia.
• The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² is unusually high (over 80% chance) for much of the country. This is more than 4 times the normal likelihood.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is consistent with international models. There is some variation in the likelihood of above average temperatures over the Top End and Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of November to January days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• All climate models, including the bureau's, forecast further warming of the tropical Pacific through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely to peack in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral although weekly index values have been above the positive IOD threshold for four consecutive weeks. Models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere spring, although there remains uncertainty in the strength and duration of the event.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 4 October 2026 shows waters around much of Australia's west, south and south-east are up to 2–3 °C warmer than average. SSTs to Australia's north-east and parts of the north are up to 2 °C below average.
• Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• Global SSTs remain at record levels. In September 2026, SSTs averaged across 60°S to 60°N reached their highest September value on record since observations began in 1900, at 1.02 °C above the 1961–1990 average in the NOAA ERSSTv5 dataset. Global SSTs were the second warmest for any month on record, while the monthly anomaly being the largest for any month.