Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of Australia, below average in parts of the far north and south-east.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of Australia, below average in parts of the far north and south-east

November to January

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (40 to 60% chance) across southern Western Australia as well as parts of south-eastern Queensland extending to north-eastern New South Wales. The chance of unusually high rainfall increases to 70% for parts of south-west Western Australia. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for southern Victoria, Tasmania, and parts of the tropical far north.
• Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• During this outlook period, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms, and showers.
• For November alone, the wet signal is more pronounced, extending across much of Western Australia and into the Northern Territory.
• November to January rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of southern and central Western Australia extending into southern parts of the Northern Territory, the western half of South Australia, southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.
• The ACCESS-S rainfall forecast is consistent with international guidance, with most models forecasting wetter than average conditions in the south-west and below average rainfall across the far north. There is some variation in the likelihood of above average rainfall across the east between models.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of November to January records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across Australia

November to January

• Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across Australia.
• The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² is very high (over 80% chance) for much of the country. This is more than 4 times the normal likelihood.
• November to January maximum temperatures are very likely to be above average (greater than 80% chance) across much of Australia.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 50% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of Australia, with the highest chances (over 70%) across parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, south-west Western Australia and Queensland's far north.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is consistent with most international models, however ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of above average temperatures compared to some other models.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of November to January days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to 4 months ahead. The model simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may evolve, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These indicators mainly reflect interactions between the ocean and atmosphere.

Current climate indicators:

• A strong El Niño is underway. All climate models, including the bureau's, forecast further warming of the tropical Pacific through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely to peak around November to December as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of several factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral although weekly index values have been above the positive IOD threshold for 5 consecutive weeks. Models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere spring and persist into early summer, although there remains uncertainty in the strength and duration of the event.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 11 October 2026 shows waters around most of Australia's west, south and south-east are up to 3°C warmer than average. SSTs to Australia's north-east have cooled to 2 °C below average in some areas.
• SSTs in the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west and in the Coral Sea. Warmer waters in the Australian region can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• Global SSTs remain at record levels. September 2026 was the warmest September on record at 1.02 °C above the 1961–1990 average. It was also the third warmest month on record overall since 1900.