Tropical Climate Update

Recent and current conditions

During the week to 24 February, showers, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms impacted northern Australia as a result of slow moving troughs and tropical lows. Offshore moisture was pulled across northern Queensland resulting in heavy rain around the North Tropical Coast and the north-west Weekly totals of more than 100 mm were recorded along the north-east coast, with isolated areas above 200 mm. Minor to Major flood warnings are currently in place for central and western Queensland and the eastern Northern Territory, with Major flood warnings for the Flinders and Cape rivers. Heavy rainfall has resulted in road closures across much of western and central Queensland, isolating communities. Soil moisture is currently above average across much of the north in addition to full catchments, therefore further rainfall is more likely to cause flash and riverine flooding. See the Bureau website for the latest flood warnings.

A tropical low (26U) is currently located over the south-eastern Northern Territory, drawing in high levels of tropical moisture that may result in over a year's worth of rain to broad areas of central Australia. Weekly totals of more than 100 mm have already been recorded in large parts of the southern and eastern Northern Territory, and western and central Queensland.

Fortnightly forecast

Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of northern Australia for the fortnight ending 13 March. There is an increased chance (50% chance or greater) of this rainfall being unusually high (amongst the wettest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) for northern parts of Western Australia, the central Northern Territory and most of Queensland.

There is potential for the monsoon to become active from late this week, which may persist into the following week. The monsoon, should it develop will likely bring further heavy rainfall and may exacerbate current flooding.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight are very likely to be below average due to cloudier than usual conditions, with an increased chance of maximum temperatures being unusually low (amongst the coldest 20% of fortnights for this time of year). Minimum temperatures are likely to be below average for northern parts of Western Australia and the central Northern Territory and above average for the Top End and northern and eastern Queensland.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently indiscernible, after a relatively brief pulse in the Indian Ocean in mid-February. It is forecast to remain weak to indiscernible until at least mid-March. When weak, the MJO typically has little impact on Australian rainfall.