Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 2 February, widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms impacted the tropical north, driven by active wet season troughs and low-pressure systems, including tropical lows 18U and 21U. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 200 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across much of northern Queensland, the Top End of the Northern Territory and parts of the Kimberley, Western Australia. The highest weekly rainfall total (at a Bureau rain gauge), to 9am on 2 February, was 316.2 mm at Nitmiluk Ridge in the Northern Territory.

Ongoing flooding continues to impact parts of Queensland. As of 3 February, minor to major flooding is continuing in places across western Queensland and the Gulf Country. Minor to major flood warnings are current for the Lower Daly and Katherine River Gorge catchments in the Northern Territory Top End. The Katherine River reached its highest level in the past five years, with further rainfall forecast for the region which may lead to further flooding. See the Bureau website for the latest flood warnings.

Low-intensity to locally extreme heatwave conditions impacted western regions of Western Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland where maximum temperatures ranged between 4 to 8 °C above average during the week. Temperatures were generally below average in the northern tropics.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 7 to 20 February, issued on 2 February, shows above average rainfall is likely for the Pilbara and Gascoyne, Interior and southern and coastal regions of the Kimberley in Western Australia, southern parts of Queensland and areas of the Northern Territory including parts of the Top End.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory and most of eastern and central Queensland and below average for most of Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across the tropical north.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

As of 31 January, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is indiscernible. Forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to remain weak or indiscernible, thereby having little influence on Australian rainfall.