Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 10 August, there was little to no rainfall across most of northern Australia, except the north-eastern parts of Queensland and the Top End, where onshore airflow brought 50 to 100 mm during the fortnight.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight were generally up to 4 °C above average, except along parts of the Western Australia and the Northern Territory border, and in north-eastern Queensland where maxima were up to 2 °C below average.

Minimum temperatures were generally 2 to 4 °C below average, with daily minima reaching up to 8 °C below average over southern areas of the Northern Territory, parts of inland Queensland and northern Western Australia.

Long-range forecast

The long-range forecast for September to November, issued on 6 August, indicates above average rainfall is likely for much of the western half of northern Australia, extending into Queensland's Gulf Country, and below average rainfall is likely along parts of the eastern coastal fringe and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, and the northern Top End. The season marks northern Australia's transition to the wet season. During the start of the season, average rainfall remains low across much of the north, with less than 10 mm typically recorded in September, before increasing to around 50 to 100 mm by the end of the season.

Maximum temperatures for September to November are likely to be above-average across the southern half of northern Australia, and below average for eastern areas of tropical Queensland and the northern Kimberley. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across much of northern Australia.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

A moderate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is currently in the Western Pacific. Forecasts as of 8 August show the MJO is likely to remain in the Western Pacific during the coming fortnight, largely influenced by the strong El Niño signal.

Northern Rainfall Onset

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides probabilistic forecasts for the first significant rains after 1 September for the 2026–27 wet season. The northern rainfall onset for the 2026–27 season is likely to be later than normal for eastern and far northern parts of northern Australia and for parts of the north-west coastline, but an earlier onset is mostly favoured elsewhere across northern Australia.

International Conditions

Typhoon Dolphin

Typhoon Dolphin formed on 27 July near the Dateline in the central-west Pacific, developing from a tropical low that had originated south of Hawaii. It rapidly intensified to a Category 4 typhoon on 28 July before reaching Category 5 super-typhoon strength the next day. The system impacted Japan's Okinawa Island on 7 August and made landfall in eastern China on 9 August. It was the fourth typhoon to make landfall in China during the 2026 season and the strongest storm to affect the Chinese mainland so far this year. The storm forced mass evacuations in Japan and China due to destructive winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge.

El Niño impacts

Indonesia is experiencing prolonged drought and intense heat linked to the developing 2026 El Niño, increasing wildfire risk with more than 5,000 hotspots detected nationwide, and growing concerns over crop losses and water shortages. Dry conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027 for large parts of the country.

India's 2026 monsoon began slowly with a delayed onset consistent with El Niño. A series of weather systems during July helped reduce rainfall deficits, though triggered flooding and landslides in some locations. Rainfall deficits persist across eastern, north-eastern and southern regions, with cumulative monsoon rainfall since 1 June remaining 14% below average.