Tropical Climate Update

Unseasonable rainfall over parts of southern Northern Territory

For the fortnight ending 13 July, rainfall totals greater than 25 mm were recorded in large parts of the southern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland, with totals locally exceeding 50 mm. These totals are notable as the average July rainfall for most of the southern tropics is less than 25 mm. Rainfall was produced during the passage of multiple upper-air troughs over the region.

Onshore airflow brought scattered showers to parts of north-east Queensland coast on many days, resulting in fortnightly rainfall totals greater than 50 mm. Most of remaining tropical Australia recorded little to no rain during the past fortnight.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight ending 12 July were below average in parts of the southern Northern Territory extending into Western Australia, and up to 4 °C above average in northern parts of the Northern Territory and much of tropical Queensland. Minimum temperatures were generally up to 6 °C above average.

Long-range forecast

The long-range forecast for August to October, issued on 9 July, indicates that above average rainfall is likely for northern parts of Western Australia and adjacent parts of western Northern Territory. The likelihood is highest towards the end of the season, when rainfall over northern Australia is transitioning from the dry to the wet season. During August and September, most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall and low rainfall totals can be enough to exceed seasonal averages. The long-range forecast also indicates that above average rainfall is likely for eastern coastal fringe of Cape York Peninsula in Queensland and areas of eastern Top End in the Northern Territory.  Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of southern and central Queensland and the far north of the Northern Territory.

Maximum temperatures for August to October are likely to be above average for most of northern Australia, but below average for northern areas of tropical Queensland and the north-eastern Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across northern Australia.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The moderately strong pulse of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been relatively stationary in the western Pacific over the past week. This pattern is likely a dominance of westerly winds in the western Pacific from the current El Niño pattern, rather than an active MJO pulse. Most models forecast this pattern to continue into late July.

Northern Rainfall Onset

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides probabilistic forecasts for the first significant rains after 1 September for the 2026–27 wet season. The northern rainfall onset for the 2026–27 season is likely to be later than normal for eastern and far northern parts of northern Australia, but earlier for most of the west. 

Tropical Storm Maysak

Tropical Storm Maysak formed on 2 July in the South China Sea and tracked north-westward towards Hainan, China, while slowly intensifying. Maysak made first landfall in Hainan Province on 3 July. After crossing Hainan, Maysak entered the Beibu Gulf, further intensified and was upgraded to a severe tropical storm. It made a second landfall on 4 July near the Vietnam-China border, weakened and was downgraded into a tropical depression. Maysak brought heavy rain, flooding and strong winds, resulting in some fatalities.

Maysak was the first tropical system to make landfall in mainland China this year. Although it was not an intense system by wind-speed standards, its slow movement and abundant moisture resulted in widespread flooding.

Violent Typhoon Bavi

Typhoon Bavi developed into a tropical storm on 2 July in the western Pacific Ocean, east of Philippines, then underwent a period of rapid intensification and on 4 July was upgraded to a violent typhoon (equivalent to Australian Category 5). Bavi tracked to the north-west across the Philippine Sea and on 6 July its centre passed just north of the US territorial island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Islands, bringing destructive winds, widespread heavy rain and flooding, and storm surges, impacting Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Bavi continued in the north-westerly direction, towards south-eastern China, but started to gradually weaken and on 9 July was downgraded to typhoon intensity. Typhoon Bavi passed north of Taiwan on 11 July and made landfall on the eastern China's Zhejiang Province, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and flooding.

Indian monsoon onset

The 2026 Southwest Monsoon season has been characterised by a delayed and weak onset, with June rainfall across India nearly 40% below the climatological average. In July, the monsoon became more active and rapidly expanded across north-west India, and by 9 July the monsoon covered the entire country, one day later than the average date for full coverage of India. 

For more information about the India's Southwest Monsoon, go to the Monsoon Information Onset | India Meteorological Department.