Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent and current conditions

During the week ending 13 April, isolated showers and thunderstorms affected Queensland's north-eastern coast, parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory and areas in northern and central Western Australia. The highest weekly totals of up to 50 mm, and locally higher, were recorded in northern and western areas of the Top End.

Riverine flooding in central Australia continues to recede slowly with a moderate flood warning current for the Eyre Creek.

Weekly maximum temperatures were above average across much of northern Australia, with maximum temperature anomalies up to 4 °C above average across most of the tropical north. Weekly minimum temperature anomalies were below average for much of the eastern tropics and above average for western parts of tropical Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila

Tropical low 37U formed on 2 April in the Solomon Sea, between Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands. It slowly intensified while remaining relatively stationary and on 4 April reached the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and was named TC Maila by the PNG National Weather Service. Maila intensified into Severe TC system (Category 3) early on 6 April and later in the day it entered the Australian Area of Responsibility (AOR). Severe TC Maila continued to move slowly, intensifying into a Category 5 system early on 8 April.  From 9 April, Maila started to weaken due to the interaction with land as it passed over Papua New Guinea. Early on 11 April, Maila weakened to a Category 1 system while remaining slow-moving in the Solomon Sea, and later in the day it was downgraded to a tropical low. Strong winds, heavy rainfall and high waves caused significant damage to parts od PNG's infrastructure, disruption to supply chains and landslides, including in Milne Bay Province and Bougainville.

Ex-TC Maila is forecast to track in the westerly direction across the Coral Sea towards the Far North Queensland coast and, combined with a low pressure trough, bring increased rainfall to northern Queensland and northern parts of the Northern Territory in the coming days.

Severe TC Maila was the 11th TC in the Australian AOR in the 2025–26 season and the 7th to reach Severe intensity.

Tropical low 38U

A weak tropical low (38U) is currently, as at 8 am AWST on 14 April, in the Indian Ocean just to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is forecast to move to the west, passing to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands on 15 April without any direct impact to islands, and continue towards the western boundary of the Australian AOR. For the latest information on tropical activity, see our 7-day forecast.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 18 April to 1 March, issued 13 April, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory. Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of southern tropical Australia. Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average for parts of northern Queensland and much of the Top End in the Northern Territory, and above average across remaining parts of the tropical Australia.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

A strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Western Pacific. Most models forecast the MJO to remain strong and progress into the Western Hemisphere and Africa region in the coming days. When located in these regions, the MJO enhances westerly wind anomalies over the western and central Pacific, which is likely to assist in El Niño development via warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. A MJO in the Western Hemisphere also typically reduces the likelihood of rainfall over parts of north-east Australia.

International Conditions

Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Vaianu formed on 5 April near Fiji. It rapidly intensified and on 7 April reached a severe TC intensity (Category 3 system) while passing west of Fiji where it brought heavy rainfall, strong winds and high seas. Severe TC Vaianu tracked southwards weakening over the cooler waters and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on 9 April as it moved south of the Tropic of Capricorn. Ex-TC Vaianu continued to track in the southerly direction towards New Zealand where it made landfall on 12 April near the Maketu Peninsula in Bay of Planty. It tracked south-east across parts of the North Island before moving offshore. It brought heavy rainfall and damaging winds, resulting in flooding and power outages across parts of New Zealand's North Island, as well as hazardous coastal conditions.

Super Typhoon Sinlaku

A tropical storm, named Sinlaku, developed in the western North Pacific, east of Philippines, on 9 April. The storm rapidly intensified while moving to the west, and was upgraded to a typhoon on 11 April, the first typhoon of the 2026 season. Sinlaku continued a rapid intensification and on 12 April was upgraded to a violent typhoon (equivalent to Australian Category 5). As of 14 April, Sinlaku is currently tracking to the north-west across the Philippine Sea, towards the Northern Mariana Islands of Saipan and Tinian. Super Typhoon Sinlaku is forecast to bring heavy rainfall, a devastating storm surge and huge ocean swell to Guam and Northern Mariana Islands.