Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

The past week has seen the monsoon trough and several embedded tropical lows bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and flooding to northern Australia, most significantly impacting northern Queensland and the Northern Territory. In the later part of the week, a trough brought moist tropical air to parts of central and south-east Queensland, resulting in heavy rainfall and flooding.

A tropical low has persisted across the Northern Territory's Top End, and together with a low pressure trough, has brought widespread showers, thunderstorms and heavy falls to the region. For the week ending 9 March, weekly totals exceeding 200 mm were recorded across much of the western and southern Top End, with some locations exceeding 500 mm for the week. Heavy rainfall also impacted the northern Kimberley with weekly totals between 50 and 300 mm for the region. There were several March daily rainfall site records set across the Top End from 5 March, including an annual daily rainfall record at Upper Fergusson River (31 years of data) of 218.8 mm in the 24 hours to 9am 6 March, surpassing the previous record of 169.6 mm set on 3 March 1997.

Flooding impacted the Daly and Katherine rivers, with flooding at Katherine, peaking at around 19.21 m on 7 March, similar to flooding during April 2006 peaking at 19.17 m. Communities were evacuated across the Daly and Katherine catchments, with many residents impacted by power outages, school closures and the closure of Katherine Hospital. Major flood warnings continue for the Daly and Katherine rivers.

Heavy rainfall impacted northern Queensland as tropical low 29U crossed the north Queensland coast near Tully and Innisfail. The system tracked south-west and rapidly weakened once crossing the coast. Daily rainfall peaked on 7 and 8 March, with highest falls around the Wide Bay and Burnett regions in excess of 100 mm across the two days. Over this period, several March and annual daily site records were broken including annual record of 252.6 mm at Dunollie (77 years of data) in the 24 hours to 9 am on 9 March

A trough brought moist tropical air to southern and eastern Queensland resulting in showers and thunderstorms across parts of southern Queensland and eastern New South Wales. For the week ending 9 March, rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm have been recorded across south-eastern and central Queensland, the Central Coast, Gulf Country and North Tropical Coast including in excess of 400 mm in the Cairns region. Heavy rainfall and flooding have resulted in extensive and ongoing road closures across Queensland, particularly across central and eastern areas.

There are currently many moderate to major flood warnings across eastern and central Queensland. These include forecast rapid river rise for the Burnett River, with the potential for flooding close to December 2010 levels at Bundaberg. For the latest flood advice, please visit warnings and alerts page.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

The active monsoon period is expected to continue across northern Australia with showers and thunderstorms expected during the coming week. A tropical low is expected to linger over the Top End during the coming days, bringing further rainfall and flooding.

The forecast for the fortnight of 14 to 27 March, issued 9 March, shows rainfall is likely to be above average across most of the tropical north. There is at least a 60% chance of rainfall being unusually high (amongst the wettest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) for parts of the central Top End and northern Cape York Peninsula. For parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Interior districts of Western Australia, rainfall is likely to be below average for the fortnight.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across most of northern Australia. There is at least a 60% chance of unusually low maximum temperatures (amongst the coldest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) for central Queensland during the fortnight. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across most of eastern and northern Queensland, the eastern Top End and most of northern Western Australia.

There are currently no tropical cyclones forecast for the week beginning 10 March. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone 7-Day Forecast for the latest tropical cyclone forecast in the Australian region.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

A weak to moderate pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Maritime Continent. The majority of models show the MJO is likely to progress into the Western Pacific, before weakening later in March. When in the Maritime Continent or Western Pacific, the MJO can increase rainfall over northern Australia, particularly northern Queensland.