Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 27 October, isolated thunderstorms, some severe, impacted southern parts of the Northern Territory and central and south-eastern Queensland. Low pressure troughs moved across parts of the interior with moderate rainfall. Weekly rainfall totals of 10 to 50 mm, locally higher, were recorded across western and southern Northern Territory and adjacent areas of Western Australia, as well as in parts of central and south-eastern Queensland.

During the week, low intensity to severe heatwave conditions built up and persisted across northern parts of the Northern Territory and much of Queensland.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across much of the northern Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies were up to 8 °C above average across large parts of the tropics, with some localised areas up to 12 °C above average. Some Queensland stations had their warmest October daily maximum and minimum temperatures on record.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 1 to 14 November, issued on 27 October, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for most of Queensland and the Northern Territory and parts of Western Australia's Kimberley, with the highest chance in the northern parts of Cape York Peninsula (Queensland) and the Top End (Northern Territory). Forecasts for southern parts of the Kimberley  show no significant tendency towards above or below average rainfall, while rainfall is likely to be below average for central and western parts of Western Australia.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average across much of northern Australia for the fortnight starting 1 November. Nights have an increased chance (more than 70% chance) of being unusually warm for areas in the north of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and most of northern and eastern Queensland. Unusually warm temperatures are defined as those in the warmest 20% of records for this period between 1981 and 2018.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently, as at 27 October, moderately strong and located in the Maritime Continent. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to become weak or indiscernible over the coming fortnight.

International conditions

Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa is the 13-th named storm, and third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.  Melissa started as a tropical disturbance that formed on 19 October in the Caribbean Sea. On 21 October it strengthened into a Tropical Storm while slowly moving west to north-west over the very warm waters of the central Caribbean Sea and on 25 October, Melissa reached hurricane strength. With favourable conditions, it rapidly developed into a Category 5 hurricane on 27 October. At its peak, Melissa had sustained winds of 280 km/h and central pressure of 906 hPa, becoming the Atlantic season's strongest hurricane and the strongest globally this year.

Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica on 28 October (local time), then track northwards towards eastern Cuba. Due to its slow motion and strength, Melissa is expected to bring extensive wind damage and power outages, heavy rainfall, storm surge, flash flooding and landslides to Jamaica. It will be the strongest hurricane to directly hit Jamaica since records started in 1851.

Severe Tropical Storm Chenge

Tropical Storm Chenge formed in the central Indian Ocean, east of Madagascar, on 18 October. Chenge tracked westwards and intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm on 22 October, with sustained winds of 110 km/h, maximum wind gusts to 140 km/h and central pressure of 987 hPa. It tracked north of the Madagascar while weakening, and on 25 October was classified as a tropical depression. It remained over the open waters but brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Kenya.

Tropical Storm Sonia

Tropical Storm Sonia formed in the eastern Pacific, south-west of Baja California, on 25 October. It moved westwards, with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and wind gusts up to 95 km/h. On 27 October, Sonia turned to the north-west and started to weaken. It transitioned to a post-tropical depression on 28 October while remaining over open waters of the eastern Pacific.