Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

In the last week, severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) brought widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms to large parts of north-western Australia, as the system pulled in deep tropical moisture and generated unstable air. Moist easterly onshore flow brought heavy rainfall totals to the eastern coast of Queensland. Weekly rainfall totals, to 9am on 9 February, of 50 to 150 mm, with isolated heavier falls, were recorded along Queensland's central and north tropical coasts, Cape York Peninsula, much of the Northern Territory, and northern parts of Western Australia.  Several sites in the north of the Northern Territory and Western Australia had their highest February daily rainfall on record.

Ongoing flooding continues to impact parts of western and northern Queensland and the Northern Territory. The Daly River at Daly River Police Station reached 14 meters (major flood level) on Monday, 9 February. See the Bureau website for the latest flood warnings.

Low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions impacted western regions of Western Australia where maximum temperatures ranged between 4 to 8 °C above average during the week. Temperatures were generally below average in the north due to rainfall and cloud cover.  

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 14 to 27 February, issued on 9 February, shows above average rainfall is likely for much of Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory, and the north and west of Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average for much of the tropical north associated with the enhanced rainfall forecast for the fortnight. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for parts of northern Queensland and the Northern Territory and in the east of tropical Western Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

Tropical low 21U developed on 29 January over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. It then tracked generally westwards over land before making its way offshore of the Kimberley where it intensified into a Category 1 system and was named Mitchell on 6 February. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mitchell tracked along the Pilbara Coast, reaching peak intensity as a Category 3 system (Severe TC) on 8 February as it passed Karratha. It weakened to a Category 1 system on 9 February before making landfall as a tropical low on the Gascoyne coast east of Shark Bay around 1am AWST on 10 February and continued to move inland. Mitchell was the 9th TC in the Australian Area of Responsibility in the 2025–26 season and the 5th system to make landfall on the Australian coastline.

The Pilbara coast experienced damaging winds and heavy rainfall as TC Mitchell passed close by. The strongest wind gusts were observed on offshore islands, with Legendre Island recording 169 km/h on 7 February (an annual record for the site) and Barrow Island Airport recording 148 km/h on 8 February (a February record for the site). On the mainland, Karratha, Onslow Airport, Learmonth Airport and Carnarvon Airport all recorded gusts of at least 100 km/h.

Daily rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm, with isolated heavier falls, were recorded along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts between 7 and 10 February. The highest daily totals (at a Bureau gauge) were 109.0 mm at Sherlock, east of Roebourne, in the 24 hours to 9am on 8 February, and 103.4 mm at Shark Bay Airport to 9am on 10 February.  Some regions in the Pilbara observed more than 100 mm of rain in 48 hours, leading to flash flooding and road closures.

See the tropical cyclone 7-day forecast for the latest advice on systems in the Australian region.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

As of 8 February, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is indiscernible. Forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to strengthen in the eastern Indian Ocean.