Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

For the week ending 23 March, a trough over the inland parts of the Northern Territory, tropical moisture convergence along the northern Queensland coast, and Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, brought heavy rainfall to large parts of northern Australia. Weekly rainfall totals of 100 to 300 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the north-eastern coast of Queensland, the Northern Territory's Top End and northern parts of the Kimberley. Further south, weekly totals between 50 and 150 mm were recorded across parts of southern Northern Territory. Both the highest weekly and highest daily rainfall totals (at Bureau gauges) were recorded on Cape York Peninsula. The highest weekly total was 465.8 mm at Scherger RAAF, while the highest daily total was 226.0 mm at Weipa Aero in the 24 hours to 9 am on 21 March.

Widespread flooding continued in many catchments across the tropical north. The Daly River at Nauiyu Police Station (Northern Territory) was above the Major flood level throughout the week and is rising again. Major flood levels were also exceeded at Adelaide River township and at Beswick on the Waterhouse River. There are currently many moderate to major flood warnings across eastern and central Queensland and eastern and northern catchments of the Northern Territory. For the latest flood advice, please visit warnings and alerts page.

Weekly maximum temperatures were below average across much of northern Australia, with daily maximum temperature anomalies up to 10 °C below average over the Top End due to ex-TC Narelle. Weekly minimum temperature anomalies were above average for much of tropical Australia.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 28 March to 10 April, issued 23 March, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of northern Queensland and north-eastern Northern Territory. There is more than 50% chance of rainfall being unusually high (amongst the wettest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) for parts of the Cape York Peninsula. Rainfall for the fortnight is likely to be below average for southern parts of tropical Queensland and much of the inland Northern Territory and tropical Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across most of the Cape York Peninsula and northern parts of the Northern Territory and above average for central and southern Queensland, southern parts of the Northern Territory and most of tropical Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Queensland, eastern parts of the Top End and the Pilbara district in Western Australia, and below average for parts of the Kimberley and the western Top End.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Tropical low 34U formed on 15 March near Vanuatu and entered the Australian region the following day. It continued to track westward over the warm waters of the Coral Sea while strengthening, and on 17 March it reached tropical cyclone intensity and was named Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle. TC Narelle rapidly strengthened reaching Severe TC intensity (Category 3) on 18 March and by the morning of 19 March, it was a Category 5 system. Severe TC Narelle made landfall on the north Queensland coast, north of Coen on the Cape York Peninsula, around 7 am AEST on 20 March as a Category 4 system. After landfall, it continued tracking west over the Peninsula district, weakening to a Category 2 system. Narelle brought widespread rainfall and strong winds to the Peninsula district. Wind gusts exceeded 100 km/h at several stations including observations of 115 km/h at Lockhart River Airport and 109 km/h at Weipa Aero, which was a record highest for March for this station. Two-day rainfall totals (ending 9 am on 21 March) exceeded 200 mm across the region, including 345.8 mm at Scherger RAAF, 293.2 mm at Weipa Aero and 280.3 mm at Moreton Telegraph Station, the record highest 2-day rainfall total for March for this station which has 107 years of data.

On 21 March, Narelle moved over the Gulf of Carpentaria and intensified into a Category 3 system, continuing westward towards the eastern Top End in the Northern Territory. Narelle made second landfall early in the morning on 22 March near Cape Shiels as a Category 3 system, rapidly weakened and was downgraded to a tropical low. Ex-TC Narelle continued to track westward across the Top End and on 23 March moved over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf near the Northern Territory/Western Australia border. Two-day rainfall totals (ending 9 am on 23 March) exceeded 100 mm across much of the Top End including 206.0 mm at the Adelaide River Post Office, 204.0 mm at the Central Arnhem Plateau and 128.0 mm at Cooinda Airstrip.

Later on 23 March, ex-TC Narelle moved over the north-east Kimberley coast continuing in a west-southwest direction across the region. In the morning of 24 March, the system moved over waters west of the Kimberley coast. It is expected to continue to track in a west-southwesterly direction parallel to the Western Australian coast, intensify and redevelop into a tropical cyclone. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone 7-Day Forecast for the latest tropical cyclone forecast in the Australian region.

Severe TC Narelle was the tenth TC in the Australian region this season (2025–26), and the sixth TC that has reached a severe TC intensity.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

As of 22 March, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength in the Western Pacific. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to maintain or gradually increase strength while moving into the Western Hemisphere. When in the Western Pacific, the MJO can increase rainfall over northern Australia, particularly northern Queensland.