Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 2 November, low pressure systems and associated surface troughs in central and eastern Australia interacted with tropical moisture across much of the country, leading to widespread storms, some severe, across Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Weekly rainfall totals of 10 to 100 mm were recorded across large areas of Queensland and the Northern Territory, and parts of far northern Western Australia. Totals greater than 100 mm were recorded in parts of central Queensland. Minor to continued for many catchments in southern Queensland.

Maximum temperatures for the week ending 2 November were mostly above average across northern Australia, except parts of south-eastern Queensland, central Northern Territory and coastal fringes of Western Australia. Daytime maximums were more than 3 °C above average for isolated patches in Western Australia's interior and south-eastern Northern Territory extending into south-western and central Queensland. Minimum temperatures for the week were above average across most of northern Australia except in western parts of Western Australia, with nights more than 4 °C warmer than average for south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory extending into south-western Queensland.

Fortnightly forecast

For the fortnight of 8 to 21 November 2026, above-average rainfall is likely for much of northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory, extending into north-western Queensland. Below average rainfall is likely for far northern Queensland, and northern coastal fringes of the Northern Territory's Top End. Temperatures are generally likely to be warmer than average, particularly overnight temperatures.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently at moderate strength in the Indian Ocean. Most models forecast the MJO to strengthen in the Indian Ocean for the next 7 days, after which they diverge: some show a rapid weakening in the Indian Ocean, or a gradual weakening as it moves towards the Maritime Continent. The MJO signal is likely being influenced by the positive IOD and strong El Niño events that are currently active.

When the MJO is in the Indian Ocean at this time of year, it typically has little influence on rainfall in the Australian region. However, it does increase the chance of above-average weekly maximum temperatures for south-east Australia.

International conditions

Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu

Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu initially developed as a depression in the Andaman Sea on 29 October, and into a cyclonic storm on 1 November as it travelled north-westwards towards India. Murasu further intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm offshore from Nellore, India and made landfall between Bapatla and Prakasam late on the 2nd. Murasu weakened into a depression on the 3rd.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab developed into a depression on 24 October in the Bay of Bengal, and into a cyclonic storm on the 26th. Arnab travelled westward and made landfall southwest of Yanam, India on the 27th before weakening into a severe cyclonic storm. Arnab shifted northward and weakened further into a depression later on the 28th.

Typically, about 3 to 4 cyclonic storms form per season in the Northern Indian Ocean basin.