Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 27 July, rainfall totals were mostly less than 10 mm about the Queensland coast. Onshore airflow brought scattered showers to parts of the north-east Queensland coast on many days, resulting in isolated fortnightly rainfall totals greater than 50 mm. Most of remaining tropical Australia recorded little to no rain during the past fortnight.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight ending 27 July were generally 2 °C below average across the Northern Territory extending into adjacent parts of Western Australia, and parts of tropical Queensland.

Minimum temperatures were generally 2 to 4 °C below average, with daily minima reaching up to 8 °C below average about central and southern areas of the Northern Territory.

Long-range forecast

The long-range forecast for August to October, issued on 23 July, indicates above average rainfall is likely for northern and western parts of Western Australia and adjacent parts of western Northern Territory. The likelihood is highest towards the end of the season, when rainfall over northern Australia is transitioning from the dry to the wet season. During August and September, most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall meaning even low rainfall totals can be enough to exceed seasonal averages. The long-range forecast also indicates that above average rainfall is likely for eastern coastal fringe of Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.  Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of southern and central Queensland and the far northern and eastern areas of the Northern Territory.

Maximum temperatures for August to October are likely to be below average for northern areas of tropical Queensland and the north-eastern Northern Territory and above-average for parts of north-west Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across much of northern Australia, and below average across part of the central and eastern Top End.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

A moderate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is currently located in the Western Hemisphere, where it has been mostly stationary since mid-July. This pattern is likely reflecting a dominance of westerly winds in the western Pacific influenced by the strengthening El Niño rather than an active MJO pulse. Forecasts as of 24 July show the MJO signal is likely to weaken in the coming days before re-emerging in the Western Pacific during the first week of August.

Northern Rainfall Onset

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides probabilistic forecasts for the first significant rains after 1 September for the 2026–27 wet season. The northern rainfall onset for the 2026–27 season is likely to be later than normal for eastern and far northern parts of northern Australia and for parts of the north-west coastline, but an earlier onset is mostly favoured elsewhere across northern Australia.

International Conditions

El Niño: Papua New Guinea and Pacific Impacts

Drought conditions are emerging in some western Pacific countries including Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Prolonged dry conditions in some highland provinces of PNG are already affecting agricultural produce and water resources. PNG also faces heightened bushfire risk due to drier vegetation coinciding with the peak fire season from mid-July to mid-November. 

Several south Pacific countries such as Tonga and Fiji have reported unusually low night-time temperatures which appear to be associated with enhanced southerly trade winds. The long-range forecast for August to October, issued 23 July 2026 shows below average rainfall is very likely from Papua New Guinea south-east to central and southern French Polynesia and for Palau and western Micronesia and the north-west tropical Pacific. Above average rainfall is very likely for countries across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific such as Kiribati and Nauru. This rainfall pattern is typical of El Niño.

Typhoon Noul

Typhoon Noul crossed the coast of southern China on 26 July bringing heavy rainfall, flooding and strong winds and to Hong Kong. The system led to the evacuation of at least 715,000 people from the Guangdong province. Its crossing follows heavy rainfall and flooding as it passed the northern Philippines and southern and eastern Taiwan. It is expected to bring further heavy rainfall as it moves inland.

Noul is the third typhoon to make landfall in China within a month and the strongest to make landfall this year.