Tropical Climate Update

Recent and current conditions

During the week ending 2 March, several tropical lows, surface troughs and the monsoon trough later in the week brought showers, rain and thunderstorms to large parts of northern Australia. A slow-moving low pressure system and an inland trough remained over the south-east of the Northern Territory and produced widespread heavy rainfall over central Australia. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 200 mm were recorded across much of the southern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland. Weekly totals exceeding 300 mm were recorded on parts of Queensland's North Tropical Coast and Cape York Peninsula. The highest weekly total (at a Bureau gauge) to 2 March was 371.2 mm at Gairloch in Queensland. The highest daily total (at a Bureau gauge) was 239.2 mm at Hawkins Creek in Queensland in the 24 hours to 9 am on 2 March.

Ongoing flooding continues to impact parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory. As of 3 March, minor to major flood warnings are active in catchments across western and north-eastern Queensland and the Gulf Country, north-western and eastern parts of the Northern Territory and parts of the Kimberley in Western Australia. See the Bureau website for the latest flood warnings.

Low-intensity to locally severe heatwave conditions impacted parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne districts in Western Australia, where maximum temperatures ranged between 2 to 8 °C above average during the week. Heatwave conditions are expected to continue across the west of Western Australia until at least early next week. Elsewhere, maximum temperatures for Western Australia's interior, south-eastern regions of the Northern Territory and western Queensland were 4 to 12 °C below average associated with increased cloud and rainfall. Minimum temperatures were generally close to average across northern Australia.

Fortnightly forecast

An active period of weather is forecast for the Australian tropics during the next two weeks, associated with a strengthening monsoon and several developing tropical lows.  The increased tropical activity and rainfall is likely being supported by a moderately strong Madden–Julian Oscillation and a Rossby wave moving through the Australian region.  Two tropical lows (28U and 30U) have developed to the north-west of the continent while tropical lows 29U and 31U are located in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria, respectively.  

Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone 7 Day Forecast for the latest forecast of tropical cyclone potential in the Australian region.

The forecast for the fortnight of 7 to 20 March, issued on 2 March, shows above average rainfall is likely across northern Australia, with the highest chance of significant rainfall across northern parts of Western Australia and the western half of the Northern Territory. For northern Western Australia and the southern and central Northern Territory, the chance of this rainfall being unusually high (defined as being in the wettest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) exceeds 50%.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average for most of northern Australia, except for much of southern and coastal Queensland. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across the tropical north, except in Western Australia's interior and the southern Northern Territory.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

As of 28 February, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has strengthened in the Maritime Continent region, and is moderately strong (has an amplitude just over 1). The majority of forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to continue to move across the Maritime Continent and weaken. However, some models maintain its strength as it moves into the Western Pacific region. When the MJO is moderate to strong in the Maritime Continent, it is likely to enhance tropical activity and rainfall over northern Australia.