Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 19 January, widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms impacted parts of the tropical north, driven by deepening monsoonal flow and the development of troughs and low pressure systems. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji tracked across northern Queensland, producing widespread heavy rainfall and embedded storms. Minor to major flooding continues across large parts of Queensland. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 300 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across much of tropical and eastern Queensland, the Top End and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and northern regions of Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures were generally below average in parts of northern Australia during the week. Daily maximum temperature anomalies were up to 4 °C below average across northern parts of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory and inland Queensland, with isolated areas in Queensland and the Northern Territory up to 10 °C below average on some days.

However, low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions persisted across western parts of the Northern Territory, extending into inland northern regions of Western Australia. The highest observed temperature was 47.8 °C at Marble Bar (Western Australia) on 19 January.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 24 January to 6 February, issued on 19 January, shows rainfall is likely to be below average for tropical Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of western Queensland. For most of northern and eastern Queensland, the forecast signal is weak, meaning roughly equal chances of wetter or drier conditions.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for the tropical north. Minimum temperatures are also likely to be above average for tropical north, except for parts of Western Australia's Pilbara district where cooler than average nights are likely.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

As of 17 January, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has continued to strengthen in the Western Pacific. Forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to weaken while progressing eastwards across the Western Pacific. At this time of year, the MJO in the Western Pacific is typically associated with enhanced rainfall and westerly wind anomalies in parts of Australia's tropical north. However, as the MJO progresses eastwards, the enhanced rainfall signal weakens, and the westerly wind anomalies typically shift into the Western Pacific, which could contribute to the breakdown of the La Nina pattern.

Tropical Cyclone Koji

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Koji made landfall on the Queensland coast between Ayr and Bowen on 11 January. Koji brought heavy rainfall and strong winds with gusts exceeding 80 km/h to the area between Bowen and Mackay, before weakening below tropical cyclone intensity south of Townsville, Queensland. Ex-TC Koji tracked westwards then north-westwards through the Gulf Country in Queensland and the Northern Territory in the following days before dissipating. The system brought heavy rainfall to areas along its track.

See the tropical cyclone 7-day forecast for the latest advice on systems in the Australian region.