Tropical Climate Update

Low to moderate rainfall across Queensland's north-east and Western Australia's Pilbara

During the fortnight ending 15 June, dry conditions prevailed across most of northern Australia. On 11 June, a north-west cloudband combined with an inland trough to bring widespread rainfall and showers to the west. Daily rainfall totals to 9am on 12 June of 25 to 50 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across much of the Pilbara and Gascoyne regions of Western Australia. Coastal showers brought fortnightly rainfall totals between 15 and 100 mm, and locally higher, to parts of Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

Maximum temperatures for the fortnight ending 14 June have been 1 to 3 °C above average across northern Australia, and warmer in the interior. Minimum temperatures have generally been within 2 °C of average.

Long-range forecast

The long-range forecast for July to September indicates above average rainfall is likely for parts of the far tropical north. While there is an increased chance of above average rainfall across these areas, this forecast falls within the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 20 mm, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages.

Maximum temperatures for July to September are likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) across northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, while minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the tropical north.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Over the previous fortnight, a moderate to strong pulse of the MJO has passed through the Western Pacific and into the Western Hemisphere. While in the Western Pacific, the MJO likely intensified the westerly trade wind anomalies during the development of the El Niño. As of 14 June, a moderate pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the Western Hemisphere. Most models forecast the MJO to weaken in the Western Hemisphere region over the next week.

Indian monsoon onset

The Southwest Indian Monsoon arrived over Kerala on 4 June, around 3 days later than usual, and has continued to progress northwards. As of 15 June, the monsoon has arrived at Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal & West Central Bay of Bengal, and continues to track slightly behind the climatological position. For updates on India's Southwest Monsoon onset, go to the Monsoon Information Onset | India Meteorological Department.