Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 8 December, showers and thunderstorms across the tropical north generated moderate to high rainfall totals. Weekly rainfall totals of 25 to 100 mm, with locally higher totals, were recorded across the northern parts of the Kimberley in Western Australia, the Northern Territory's Top End and northern Queensland. The highest weekly total was 114.2 mm at Weipa Aero in Queensland. The highest daily total was 82.2 mm in the 24 hours to 9am on 2 December at Morganella Airstrip in the Northern Territory.

Widespread low intensity heatwave conditions persisted across parts of northern Australia throughout the week, particularly for Western Australia which saw isolated patches of extreme to widespread severe heatwave conditions.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 13 December to 26 December, issued on 8 December, indicates that rainfall is likely to be below average for the Top End in the Northern Territory, extending across Far North Queensland and into central and eastern Queensland. However, rainfall is likely to be above average for much of the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley, as well as parts of the interior in Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across Queensland and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, with areas of northern Western Australia likely tending below average. Minimum temperatures are also likely to very likely be above average across most of the tropical north.

Tropical low activity likely to increase

Across the northern waters of Australia, tropical low activity is forecast to enhance over the next week, with the aid of Equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves passing through the region.

Tropical low 03U may develop in the Timor Sea from 12 December and track south-west into the Indian Ocean. As of 9 December, the chances of intensification into a tropical cyclone are low (10-15%).

Tropical low 04U may develop near the Solomon Islands from 11 December and track south-east, away from the Australian mainland and island territories, possibly impacting Vanuatu from 14 December.

Tropical low 05U is forecast to form north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands in the coming days and is forecast to have a general southerly track, although remaining to the north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

For the latest 7-day forecasts, please visit the tropical cyclone forecast page.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is, as of 6 December, weak to moderate in strength and located over the tropical Americas. Over the past few weeks, it has been strong and tracking eastwards over the Maritime Continent and Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Bureau's model and other international models suggest the MJO will rapidly weaken in the coming days, with the majority of models indicating that it will become indiscernible. Other models indicate a weak pulse slowly tracking through the tropical Americas and towards tropical Africa later in December.

At this time of year, the MJO over the tropical Americas is typically associated with below-average rainfall for much of northern and southern Australia. Based on the current forecast, the monsoon onset for Australia is unlikely to occur until at least early January 2026, suggesting a later than average onset date (after 28 December) at Darwin.

International conditions

Northeast monsoon

The northeast monsoon persisted across parts of Southeast Asia over the past week, contributing to the development of a tropical low (named 'Wilma' by the Philippine Meteorological Agency PAGASA) in the Philippine Sea, which affected parts of northern and central Philippines. The system brought heavy rainfall which triggered flooding across several regions of the country, affecting a reported 132,000 people—in addition to reports of minor infrastructure damage. Later this week, the system may affect south central Vietnam, which has already been impacted by widespread flooding in recent months.

South Pacific tropical activity

Two tropical systems impacted French Polynesia between 3 and 7 December, enhancing rainfall and cloud cover across the south-central Pacific region. This contributed to a reduction in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), through encouraging lower mean sea level pressure at Tahiti. The SOI may rebound after these effects though the current La Niña event is forecast to be relatively short-lived, with a return to neutral conditions forecast in early 2026. See the Southern hemisphere monitoring page for details of the current La Niña event.