Challenges in forecasting convective storms
Atmospheric convection is the vertical transport of heat and moisture. It's the building block of severe weather. Forecasting atmospheric convection helps us provide warnings about events such as thunderstorms.
Current forecast models struggle to predict the timing, intensity and duration of thunderstorms. This is partly due to the range of measurements required:
- millimetres – to measure droplets and ice crystals
- kilometres – to measure convective vertical motion towers
- hundreds of kilometres – to measure large-scale circulation of air masses.
Improving convection forecasting
We're developing new techniques and analysing a range of data to improve forecasting of atmospheric convection.
Developing new techniques
- An operational radar calibration and antenna pointing monitoring technique to ensure radar data can be used for quantitative analysis.
- Radar techniques to improve data quality control.
- A new radar target classification using dual-polarisation capability. This will help detect and track hailstones, heavy rain and particles released by bushfires.
- A new wind and hail nowcasting tool to provide warnings up to one hour ahead of severe weather hazards.
- A national rainfall analysis and nowcasting system that blends radar, satellite, and rain gauge observations.
- A national approach for detecting, analysing and predicting the weather produced by severe thunderstorms.
Analysing data
Shipborne precipitation observations
Collected over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, this information is used to improve rainfall retrievals from the NASA Global Precipitation Mission spaceborne dual-frequency radar.
Learn more about Southern Ocean atmospheric research.
Measurements of the size distributions of drops
An optical disdrometer is used at ground stations across Australia to measure the properties of different precipitation – raindrops, snowflakes and hail.
We use the data to better understand the relationship between convection properties and radar measurements.
Unique measurements of hail trajectories
Measuring how hail develops and moves within a thunderstorm is helping us to better predict hail fall.