While El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is often linked to drier and warmer conditions in parts of Australia, it is only one of several factors that affect our weather and climate.
The El Niño strength doesn't always match the impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature.
Is this the strongest El Niño in history?
Models indicate the current event is likely to become the strongest El Niño event on record, with reliable records dating back to 1950.
This is based on sea surface temperature forecasts in the central tropical Pacific Ocean.
The highest sea surface temperature anomalies on record were during the 1982–83 El Niño event, peaking around 2.6 °C above average in the central tropical Pacific during January 1983. This event is forecast to exceed that, possibly at more than 3.0 °C above average.
A history of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is available on our website.
How will a strong El Niño impact Australia?
Every El Niño is different.
A strong event can produce only modest effects in some regions, while a weaker event can have significant impacts.
Australia's rainfall and temperature patterns result from the combined influence of multiple climate factors – not just El Niño.
The last El Niño was a moderate to strong event that developed in spring 2023 and continued into early 2024.
While August to October 2023 was Australia's driest 3-month period on record, a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) contributed to the dry conditions.
El Niño had less influence from late 2023. Storms along the east coast and 4 tropical cyclones brought above average rainfall to widespread areas during the summer months.
Other climate factors matter
El Niño is only one piece of the climate system.
Other influences include:
- the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
- sea surface temperatures around Australia
- seasonal changes, including the northern wet season
- long-term climate change.
While the IOD is currently neutral, all climate models suggest a positive IOD could develop later in spring. This can increase the chance of drier conditions during spring, particularly across southern and eastern Australia.
What does this mean for summer and bushfire risk?
El Niño is likely to continue through spring and summer. However, its influence on Australia's rainfall usually reduces around early summer.
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of hotter summers and more frequent extreme heat events. El Niño can increase the risk of higher temperatures in Australia but local conditions and short-term weather patterns also play a role in bushfire risk.
A warming climate is increasing the likelihood and severity of:
- heatwaves, including marine heatwaves
- drought, including flash drought which can happen within weeks of hot and dry conditions
- dangerous fire weather
- heavy rainfall and flooding events.
Summer forecasts will become clearer as more information becomes available through spring.
Does El Niño increase drought risk in Australia?
El Niño can contribute to dry conditions, but it is only one factor.
Since January 2026, it has been wetter than usual in large parts of the country. Australia's overall water storages in early September are around 71% full. Capital city water storages are above 80% full except for Melbourne which is around 70% and Perth around 40%.
This year has been drier than average in:
- parts of north-eastern New South Wales extending into parts of south-eastern Queensland
- the south-western corner of Western Australia
- parts of Tasmania.
Is Australia likely to have the same summer as Europe with heatwaves and dry rivers?
El Niño historically has been associated with warmer than average summers across large parts of Australia.
There is no predictive link between northern hemisphere summers and the Australian summer. But the recent conditions in Europe and North America indicate the potential for extreme heat, rapid drying of vegetation, increased fire intensity and the rapid escalation of fire conditions.
Why is it raining during El Niño?
Many Australians associate El Niño with widespread dry conditions.
While that has often been the case in the past, other climate influences can strengthen, weaken or even outweigh its effects.
Oceans around Australia and globally are much warmer than usual and this adds to the moisture and energy that can fuel rain systems.
Warmer ocean temperatures, long-term climate trends and natural year-to-year climate variability are also affecting current conditions.
These factors can contribute to the season's rainfall patterns, even during a strong El Niño.
Is 2026 our wettest El Niño year on record?
The year began with an active La Niña and a very wet northern wet season.
During autumn we saw a rapid transition towards an El Niño state, and in June El Niño was underway.
Wetter conditions in parts of the interior during winter mostly resulted from significant weather systems including 2 north-west cloudbands and strong cold fronts that tapped into tropical moisture to our north-west.
Other climate influences during winter such as a negative Southern Annular Mode also likely increased rainfall across parts of southern Australia.
While winter rainfall was unusually high for El Niño, it was not record breaking overall.
It was a dry winter for many areas including large parts of the east and Western Australia's south-west.
What forecasts show
As at 10 September 2026, the long-range forecast shows most of Australia is likely to have above average temperatures over the coming months.
The rainfall outlook for October to December is more mixed:
- below average rainfall is likely for parts of south-eastern Australia, including southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania
- above average rainfall is very likely for most of Western Australia and some central and northern regions.
Stay up to date
The most reliable information about likely rainfall and temperatures in the coming months comes from our long-range forecasts.
These forecasts are updated regularly and take into account all major climate influences, not just El Niño. Select your location to explore the latest details.