The Bureau of Meteorology has issued the long-range forecast for the 2026 autumn (March – May) season and it shows rainfall is likely to be below average for most southern parts of Australia and above average for parts of the north.
However, during March, there is no strong signal for drier or wetter than average conditions for much of the south. Rainfall in March is likely to be above average for much of northern Australia and parts of the New South Wales north coast.
In April, there is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall in some areas including parts of Victoria, and south-western areas of Western Australia.
Autumn days and nights are likely to be warmer than average across much of Australia.
There is an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures for parts of the east and west of the country.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across much of Australia, except in parts of the interior.
The forecast will evolve over autumn, and the seasonal forecast will be updated every week. The community can stay up to date with the latest long-range forecast on our website and select their location for detailed information about their area.
The 2025–26 La Niña continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions expected by early autumn. Some models indicate a chance of El Niño forming around June, however forecasts beyond autumn are highly uncertain.
The 2025–26 La Niña continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions expected by early autumn. Some models indicate a chance of El Niño forming around June, however forecasts beyond autumn are highly uncertain.
Australia’s fire agencies advise there is an increased risk of fire for much of Victoria, parts of south-eastern South Australia, parts of southern, central and eastern New South Wales and parts of far south-western Western Australia.
2026 autumn long-range forecast for states and territories
Queensland
In March, above average rainfall is likely for most of the top half of the state with an increased chance of unusually wet conditions in the Cape York Peninsula.
For autumn overall, there's a slightly increased chance that rainfall will be below average around parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt.
For other parts of the state there is currently no strong signal for a wetter or drier than average autumn.
Warmer than usual days are likely in the southern half of Queensland and in the north of Cape York Peninsula, while cooler than average days are likely in other parts.
Night-time temperatures are likely to be above average throughout much of the state.
New South Wales and the ACT
In March, there's a slightly increased chance of above average rainfall for part of the state's north coast.
Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the state's south and inner east, including the ACT, but for other areas, there is no strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions.
Warmer than usual days are likely throughout the state and in the ACT, and for most areas, night-time temperatures are also likely to be above average.
Victoria
Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average for much of Victoria, but for March there is no strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions.
Warmer than usual days are likely throughout Victoria. For the east and south, night-time temperatures are also likely to be above average.
Western Australia
In March, above average rainfall is likely in the state's north.
Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average across southern regions of Western Australia.
Above average temperatures are likely for much of Western Australia, except parts of the northern interior.
South Australia
Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average for much of the state, including the agricultural areas. For March there is no strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions.
Warmer than average days are likely for South Australia, with nights also likely be above average in parts of the south and north-east.
Tasmania
Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average for much of the state, but for March there is no strong signal for wetter or drier than average conditions.
Above average temperatures are likely for Tasmania.
Northern Territory
March rainfall is likely to be above average for northern inland parts of the Territory, where there's an increased chance of unusually wet conditions.
The Tiwi Islands have an increased chance of below average autumn rainfall.
The wet season continues through March and April, so enhanced tropical activity is possible.
Warmer than usual days are likely for far northern and southern parts of the Territory, while there's a chance of below average temperatures for much of the interior.
Night-time temperatures are also likely to be above average for the far north.
Summer preliminary summary
Summer has been drier than usual in parts of the south and the east. However, summer has been wetter than usual for much of northern Australia and parts of the interior, including South Australia's north-eastern pastoral district and into parts of western New South Wales.
Summer days and nights were warmer than usual for most of mainland Australia.
However, large parts of the north had below average daytime temperatures. Heatwaves impacted large parts of the country in early and late January.
In January, extreme to catastrophic fire conditions, due to high temperatures and strong winds, occurred across most of Victoria and parts of South Australia, with major bushfires occurring in Victoria.
There have been 9 tropical cyclones in our region so far in the 2025–26 season with 5 systems making landfall.
The national summary for summer and February will be on the Bureau's website from 2 March.
Detailed summaries for summer and February for each state, territory and capital city will be published on 4 March.