National overview
The Bureau of Meteorology has released its spring long-range forecast for 2026.
The long-range forecast is showing that temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia. While rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the western half of the country it is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
While rainfall is expected to be below average in some areas, this does not mean it will be dry all the time. It means there is likely to be less rainfall than usual.
Spring is also a peak time for severe thunderstorms, especially along Australia's east coast.
Temperatures this spring are very likely to be above average across most of Australia, both during the day and overnight. This follows a winter where temperatures were above average across almost all of Australia.
The warmer forecast increases the risk of early-season heat, particularly across southern Australia.
El Niño is likely to strengthen and persist through spring and summer. While El Niño is typically associated with reduced rainfall across parts of Australia, its strength does not always match its impacts on Australian rainfall. The influence of El Nino on rainfall also weakens during summer.
Australia's climate is complex, with multiple climate factors influencing rainfall and temperature. Oceans around Australia and globally are also much warmer than usual, adding moisture and energy that can fuel rain systems.
Victoria
Spring rainfall is likely to be below average across Victoria. This does not mean it will be dry all the time, but there's likely to be less rain than usual.
Spring total rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 200 mm for most of the state, and at least 25 to 50 mm in the north-west.
Above average temperatures are very likely across Victoria both during the day and overnight.
There is an increased risk of fire this season in East Gippsland, the far south-west, the Surf Coast, and the area west of Geelong to the southern Wombat Forest.
Queensland
There's a slightly increased chance of above average spring rainfall for parts of the Gulf Country, parts of the North West district and into some of the Central West.
Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of eastern Queensland and the northern tip, while there is no strong rainfall signal across most inland areas. While rainfall is expected to be below average in some parts of the state this spring, this does not mean it will be dry all the time, but there's likely to be less rain than usual.
Spring total rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 100 to 200 mm for most of south-eastern Queensland, at least 25 to 50 mm in much of the central and north-western areas, and at least 10 to 25 mm in the south-west and parts of the northern Peninsula.
Spring marks the beginning of northern Australia's official wet season, which starts in October.
The first significant rains of the wet season are likely to arrive earlier than usual in parts of western Queensland, but later than usual across the far north and east.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of the state.
There is an increased fire risk this season in parts of the south-eastern interior.
New South Wales and the ACT
Spring rainfall is likely to be below average for most southern parts of New South Wales including the ACT. This does not mean it will be dry all the time, but there's likely to be less rain than usual.
In the north of the state, below average rainfall is likely during September, before shifting later in the season to near equal chances of above, below or average rainfall.
Total spring rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 200 mm along the east of the state and at least 10 to 50 mm in western New South Wales.
Spring is a peak time for severe thunderstorms along Australia's east coast.
Above average temperatures are very likely across New South Wales and the ACT both during the day and overnight.
There is an increased risk of fire this season in parts of northern and south-eastern New South Wales following recent dry conditions.
Western Australia
Spring rainfall is very likely to be above average across most of Western Australia.
The exception is the south-western corner, where below average rainfall is likely. This does not mean it will be dry all the time in south-western areas, but there's likely to be less rain than usual. Total spring rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 100 to 200 mm across most of the south-western corner.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of the state.
Spring marks the beginning of northern Australia's official wet season, which starts in October.
The first significant rains of the wet season are likely to arrive earlier than usual across most of Western Australia's north, except parts of the north-west coast.
There is an increased fire risk this season across the Cape Range, Wooramel, Western Murchison, Geraldton Hills and Yalgoo areas.
Below average rainfall and warmer conditions may further increase fire risk in the south-west.
South Australia
Spring rainfall is likely to be above average across parts of the North West Pastoral district.
Rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the Southern Agricultural Areas. This does not mean it will be dry all the time, but there's likely to be less rain than usual.
There is no strong rainfall signal for most north-eastern areas, where there are near equal chances of rainfall being above, below or close to average.
Total spring rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 100 mm in most of the agricultural areas and at least 10 to 50 mm for most of the pastoral districts.
Above average temperatures are very likely across South Australia both during the day and overnight.
There is an increased risk of fire this season in the state's upper north-west, where recent rainfall has added to the fuel load.
Tasmania
Spring rainfall is likely to be below average in north and east Tasmania. This does not mean it will be dry all the time, but there's likely to be less rain than usual.
Total spring rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 200 mm across most of the north and east, and at least 300 to 600 mm in the west.
Above average temperatures are very likely across Tasmania both during the day and overnight.
There is an increased risk of fire this season in north-eastern Tasmania, including the Furneaux Group and the East Coast.
Northern Territory
September to November rainfall is likely to be above average across parts of the Northern Territory's western areas and some central parts.
Rainfall is likely to be below average in some pockets of the far north, including the Tiwi Islands.
Total spring rainfall has a high chance of reaching at least 50 to 200 mm across most of the Territory's north-west and at least 10 to 50 mm in the east.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of the Territory.
October marks the beginning of northern Australia's official wet season.
The first significant rains of the wet season are likely to arrive earlier than usual across most of the Territory's interior, but later than usual across parts of the far north.
There is an increased risk of fire this season across most of the Territory's central and southern areas.
Preliminary winter summary
Winter has been warmer than usual across Australia.
Daytime mean temperatures were above average almost everywhere across the country.
Winter rainfall has been more mixed, with rainfall below average across large parts of eastern Australia, as well as parts of Western Australia's South West Land Division and far north-west.
Rainfall was above average across parts of the interior, including much of South Australia, western New South Wales and into northern and central Victoria.
The wetter conditions were largely associated with weather systems including north-west cloudbands, cold fronts and low-pressure systems.
Soil moisture is above average across much of the interior, including large parts of South Australia extending into western New South Wales and northern Victoria. Soil moisture is below average across much of the east and in the south-west corner.
Early spring is a good time for communities to prepare and review their bushfire and emergency plans.
On 19 August, the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services, AFAC, released Australia's Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook. Each state has areas with an increased fire risk this spring along with the Northern Territory's central and southern areas.
Fire risk depends on many factors including weather and climate, available fuels, recent fire history, natural and human barriers, and how quickly firefighting resources can suppress fires.
The national climate summary for winter will be available on the bureau's website from 1 September.
Detailed summaries for winter and August conditions for each state, territory and capital city will be published 3 September.