National overview
The Bureau of Meteorology has released its winter long-range forecast showing rainfall is likely to be below average for most central, southern and eastern parts of Australia.
While rainfall is expected to be below average in these regions, there is still a high chance of some rain with the typical winter rainfall across southern areas being 100 to 400 mm around the coast and 25 to 100 mm inland.
Temperatures this winter are likely to be above average across most of Australia. This follows a warmer than average autumn.
Despite the warmer than average forecast, cold snaps bringing low temperatures, frost or snow are still possible during winter.
Long-range forecasts provide an overall seasonal trend but do not predict short term weather systems.
The Bureau’s long-range forecast is updated fortnightly and considers a range of models and influences such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
While the ENSO is currently neutral, all models indicate El Niño is likely to develop this winter.
El Niño typically influences rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia from winter into early summer, roughly June to December, with this influence typically peaking during the spring months.
While historical experience of El Niño events can create an expectation that these events will be the same each time they occur, no two El Niño events are the same.
Victoria
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Victoria.
However, there's no strong signal for some parts of the state's south-east where there are near equal chances of rainfall being above, below or close to average.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades ranges between 100 and 300 mm throughout much of Victoria, while the state's north-west has 50 to 100 mm and parts of the far south and alpine areas have up to 600 mm.
Above average temperatures are very likely across Victoria both in the day and overnight.
Queensland
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for Queensland’s central and southern areas.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 50 and 100 mm across much of Queensland's south and east, increasing to 200 mm along much of the east coast. Western and central Queensland typically have between 10 and 50 mm and the north-west has less than 10 mm.
While rainfall is expected to be below average for most of the state this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.
It is currently northern Australia's dry season where most of the tropical north typically has very low rainfall. While the forecast shows above average rainfall is likely for some parts of the state's far north, this may only result in small amounts of rain.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of the state both in the day and overnight, except for some northern inland areas where daytime temperatures may be closer to average.
New South Wales and the ACT
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for most of New South Wales and the ACT.
However, there's no strong signal for some coastal areas where there are near equal chances of rainfall being above, below or close to average.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 100 and 300 mm along most of eastern New South Wales, with higher falls in the alpine regions. In western and central New South Wales typical winter rainfall is between 25 and 100 mm.
While rainfall is expected to be below average for most of the state this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.
Above average temperatures are likely across the state in the day and overnight for most areas.
There is an increased risk of fire this season in parts of central and northern New South Wales, following recent dry conditions.
Western Australia
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the South West Land Division.
There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall across some parts of the state's south-west.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 100 and 400 mm for most of the South West Land Division with up to 600 mm in the far south-west.
While rainfall is expected to be below average in the south-west this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.
There is no strong rainfall signal for most of the mining and pastoral districts, where there are near equal chances of rainfall being above, below or close to average.
There is an increased fire risk this season in part of the state's north-west, including northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of the state both in the day and overnight, except for some northern parts of the Kimberley where temperatures may be closer to average.
South Australia
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average for most of South Australia.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 50 and 300 mm across the state's south, with up to 400 mm for some coastal parts and 10 to 50 mm for central and northern areas.
While rainfall is expected to be below average for most of the state this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.
Above average temperatures are likely across most of South Australia both in the day and overnight, except for some northern inland areas where overnight temperatures may be closer to average.
Tasmania
While above average winter rainfall is likely for parts of south-west Tasmania, rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of the east and north, including the Bass Strait islands.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 400 and 1200 mm for western Tasmania, while eastern and northern areas typically have between 100 and 400 mm.
While rainfall is expected to be below average for some parts of the state this winter, there should still be some rain, just less than usual.
Above average temperatures are very likely across Tasmania both in the day and overnight.
Northern Territory
It is currently northern Australia's dry season where most of the tropical north typically has very low rainfall.
While the forecast shows above average rainfall is possible for some of the Territory's far north, this may only result in small amounts of rain.
June to August rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the Territory's inland and southern areas.
Typical June to August rainfall in recent decades has been between 10 and 50 mm in southern parts of the Territory, while in the north, rainfall is typically below 10 mm.
Above average daytime temperatures are likely in some southern parts of the Territory. Some areas are also likely to have above average temperatures overnight.
Preliminary autumn summary
Autumn has been warmer than usual for most of Australia.
Daytime temperatures have been above average for most of the country's east and parts of the west.
Night-time temperatures were above average for most areas other than large parts of the north and the south-west, where temperatures were close to average.
Some areas had cooler days due to extended cloud cover and rainfall, including parts of the northern interior.
Autumn has been wetter than usual for large parts of the north and extending into southern areas including most of South Australia, north-western Victoria and parts of western New South Wales.
While large areas had close to average autumn rainfall, it has been drier than usual so far for some areas. Late season rainfall is forecast and may ease the dry conditions in these areas that have been drier than usual including:
- north-eastern New South Wales, extending into parts of southern Queensland
- some southern parts of Victoria and parts of south-eastern South Australia
- Western Australia's south-western areas and pockets in the interior
- Tasmania.
Many agricultural regions in the country's south had autumn break rainfall early in March. Autumn break rainfall is yet to arrive in a few areas including central Victoria.
The national summary for autumn and May will be on the Bureau's website on 1 June.
Detailed summaries for autumn and May for each state, territory and capital city will be published on 3 June.