Welcome to the bureau's long-range forecast for August to October 2026. El Niño continues to strengthen, and drier conditions are forecast for parts of the south and east. But first, let's look at recent conditions.
Across the country, July has brought warmer than average days and nights. Some locations in the Alpine regions had their warmest July temperatures on record, including Falls Creek, reaching 13 °C on the 19th of July. This is more than 3 °C warmer than the previous July record set in 1992.
July has been drier than average in the west and in parts of eastern and southern Australia. In contrast, it has been wetter than average in parts of the far north. Some inland areas also had a rainfall event early in the month.
The fire season is already underway in northern Australia. High wet season rainfall has boosted vegetation growth adding to fuel loads.
Soil moisture remains average to above average across large parts of the country, particularly across the interior and South Australia. Compared with last month, drier soils are now more widespread in the east and parts of the west.
Streamflow continues to be above average at most sites in the north and some areas in the east. In contrast, flows have been below average across parts of the south, east and west.
Combined, water storages across Australia are about 69% full, up around 3% from last year. Some storages in eastern Australia are now at or near capacity. While storages in the south tend to fill at this time of year, some in the east and south-west remain at or below 50% capacity.
Looking ahead, rainfall for August to October is likely to be below average across much of eastern and southern Australia, and parts of the north. In contrast, rainfall is likely to be above average in the north-west, extending into parts of the interior.
There's an increased chance of unusually low rainfall for parts of the south-west and south-east.
For these regions, while rainfall is very likely to be below average, seasonal totals are forecast to reach at least 25 mm in most inland areas and at least 100 mm in most alpine and coastal regions.
Daytime temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except for parts of the far north.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average in most parts. Despite the warm forecast, late season frosts remain possible under clear skies and where soils are dry.
So, what's behind our forecast?
El Niño is firmly established and continues to strengthen. To our west, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. However, models show a positive IOD may still develop in winter.
These are just some of the influences on Australia's rainfall and temperature patterns. We update our long-range forecast regularly, to reflect the latest changes in our oceans and atmosphere.
So in summary, this August to October, we're likely to see:
- below average rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia, and parts of the north
- above average rainfall in the north-west,
- warmer than average days and nights across most of the country, except for some areas in the north.
Visit the bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. We'll see you next time.
Across the country, July has brought warmer than average days and nights. Some locations in the Alpine regions had their warmest July temperatures on record, including Falls Creek, reaching 13 °C on the 19th of July. This is more than 3 °C warmer than the previous July record set in 1992.
July has been drier than average in the west and in parts of eastern and southern Australia. In contrast, it has been wetter than average in parts of the far north. Some inland areas also had a rainfall event early in the month.
The fire season is already underway in northern Australia. High wet season rainfall has boosted vegetation growth adding to fuel loads.
Soil moisture remains average to above average across large parts of the country, particularly across the interior and South Australia. Compared with last month, drier soils are now more widespread in the east and parts of the west.
Streamflow continues to be above average at most sites in the north and some areas in the east. In contrast, flows have been below average across parts of the south, east and west.
Combined, water storages across Australia are about 69% full, up around 3% from last year. Some storages in eastern Australia are now at or near capacity. While storages in the south tend to fill at this time of year, some in the east and south-west remain at or below 50% capacity.
Looking ahead, rainfall for August to October is likely to be below average across much of eastern and southern Australia, and parts of the north. In contrast, rainfall is likely to be above average in the north-west, extending into parts of the interior.
There's an increased chance of unusually low rainfall for parts of the south-west and south-east.
For these regions, while rainfall is very likely to be below average, seasonal totals are forecast to reach at least 25 mm in most inland areas and at least 100 mm in most alpine and coastal regions.
Daytime temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except for parts of the far north.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average in most parts. Despite the warm forecast, late season frosts remain possible under clear skies and where soils are dry.
So, what's behind our forecast?
El Niño is firmly established and continues to strengthen. To our west, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. However, models show a positive IOD may still develop in winter.
These are just some of the influences on Australia's rainfall and temperature patterns. We update our long-range forecast regularly, to reflect the latest changes in our oceans and atmosphere.
So in summary, this August to October, we're likely to see:
- below average rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia, and parts of the north
- above average rainfall in the north-west,
- warmer than average days and nights across most of the country, except for some areas in the north.
Visit the bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. We'll see you next time.
Long-range forecast: August to October 2026
31 July 2026
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.