Our long-range forecast for July to September currently shows below average rainfall is likely across large parts of southern Australia, temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country and an El Niño is likely to form during winter.
May was warmer than average across large parts of eastern Australia and smaller areas in the north and west. It was the warmest May on record for parts of Tasmania, northern Victoria and eastern New South Wales. In contrast, parts of the interior were cooler than average.
May was wetter than average from the north-west of Western Australia through to New South Wales, southern Queensland and large parts of South Australia. In contrast, it was drier than average across the west of Western Australia and some northern and coastal areas of Queensland.
Root-zone soil moisture remains above average across much of the north and interior, and the south-east, including most of South Australia. Below average soil moisture persists in the west, and in some northern and coastal parts of Queensland.
The July to September forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely for large parts of southern Australia. While rainfall is likely to be above average in parts of the tropical north, it is the dry season, and rainfall totals are likely to be low. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For June to August, near-median to high streamflow is forecast mostly for northern, eastern and parts of south-eastern Australia. Low streamflow is likely in the south-west and some of the south-east.
Daytime temperatures for July to September are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except in parts of northern Australia. Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
Sea surface temperatures for July to September are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around most of Australia. The tropical Pacific is edging closer to El Niño levels, with some early signs that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer sea surface temperatures.
We update our long-range forecast regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/
May was warmer than average across large parts of eastern Australia and smaller areas in the north and west. It was the warmest May on record for parts of Tasmania, northern Victoria and eastern New South Wales. In contrast, parts of the interior were cooler than average.
May was wetter than average from the north-west of Western Australia through to New South Wales, southern Queensland and large parts of South Australia. In contrast, it was drier than average across the west of Western Australia and some northern and coastal areas of Queensland.
Root-zone soil moisture remains above average across much of the north and interior, and the south-east, including most of South Australia. Below average soil moisture persists in the west, and in some northern and coastal parts of Queensland.
The July to September forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely for large parts of southern Australia. While rainfall is likely to be above average in parts of the tropical north, it is the dry season, and rainfall totals are likely to be low. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For June to August, near-median to high streamflow is forecast mostly for northern, eastern and parts of south-eastern Australia. Low streamflow is likely in the south-west and some of the south-east.
Daytime temperatures for July to September are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except in parts of northern Australia. Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
Sea surface temperatures for July to September are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around most of Australia. The tropical Pacific is edging closer to El Niño levels, with some early signs that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer sea surface temperatures.
We update our long-range forecast regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Long-range forecast: First look – July to September 2026
11 June 2026
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.