Our long-range forecast for June to August currently shows:
- Below average rainfall is likely across parts of southern Australia and in the east.
- Temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country.
- And El Niño is likely to form during winter.
April temperatures were above average for much of the southern half of Australia, and average to cooler than average in the north and south-west.
April rainfall was below average across much of eastern Australia, as well as far western and inland regions. In contrast, rainfall was above average in parts of the south, and also in the tropical north, where April marks the end of the northern wet season.
Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across much of the north and central parts of the country. Soils are drier than average across parts of the west and east, especially an area in north-east New South Wales extending into south-east Queensland.
The June to August forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely across parts of the south and east, and above average rainfall in western Tasmania. While above average rainfall is also forecast in the north, it is the dry season, when even small amounts of rain can exceed the seasonal average. Elsewhere, there are no strong chances of rainfall being above or below average.
For May to July, near-median to high streamflow is forecast for most sites in northern Australia and parts of the south. Lower than median streamflow is likely for many sites in the south and east.
Daytime temperatures for June to August are very likely to be above average, except for parts of the north. Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
Sea surface temperatures for June to August are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including in Australian waters. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. Models suggest a transition to El Niño is likely this winter, although we need to see a response in both the atmosphere and ocean before we consider El Niño established.
We update our long-range forecast regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/
- Below average rainfall is likely across parts of southern Australia and in the east.
- Temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country.
- And El Niño is likely to form during winter.
April temperatures were above average for much of the southern half of Australia, and average to cooler than average in the north and south-west.
April rainfall was below average across much of eastern Australia, as well as far western and inland regions. In contrast, rainfall was above average in parts of the south, and also in the tropical north, where April marks the end of the northern wet season.
Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across much of the north and central parts of the country. Soils are drier than average across parts of the west and east, especially an area in north-east New South Wales extending into south-east Queensland.
The June to August forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely across parts of the south and east, and above average rainfall in western Tasmania. While above average rainfall is also forecast in the north, it is the dry season, when even small amounts of rain can exceed the seasonal average. Elsewhere, there are no strong chances of rainfall being above or below average.
For May to July, near-median to high streamflow is forecast for most sites in northern Australia and parts of the south. Lower than median streamflow is likely for many sites in the south and east.
Daytime temperatures for June to August are very likely to be above average, except for parts of the north. Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
Sea surface temperatures for June to August are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including in Australian waters. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. Models suggest a transition to El Niño is likely this winter, although we need to see a response in both the atmosphere and ocean before we consider El Niño established.
We update our long-range forecast regularly. Select your location to find out more. Visit www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Long-range forecast: First look – June to August 2026
14 May 2026
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.