Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for November 2025 to January 2026.
The next three months are likely to be warmer than usual, but the rainfall forecast is mixed across the country.
Let's look at recent conditions.
October days and nights were warmer than average for much of the mainland.
It is on track to be the third warmest October on record.
Low-intensity to severe heatwaves impacted northern, central and eastern parts of the country from the middle of the month. Many sites had their highest October daytime and night-time temperatures on record. It has been unusually warm along the east coast. Sydney and Brisbane are on track for their warmest October maximum temperatures on record.
It was a wetter than average month across large parts of the country. But, rainfall was below average for the south-west and much of New South Wales.
Following October rainfall, root-zone soil moisture is currently above average in large areas of the north, west and south. In contrast, soils have dried across much of the east, with broad areas of below average soil moisture.
Rainfall during the cool season, from April to October, is crucial for agriculture across southern Australia – replenishing soil moisture, filling water storages and supporting streamflow. Cool season rainfall this year was average to below average for much of south-eastern Australia. However, coastal areas of New South Wales and parts of south-west Western Australia received above average rainfall.
Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 70%. Many storages in the north and east are at or near capacity. However, some storages in the south are less than half full.
In October, streamflow was average to above average for most of the north and parts of the east, south-west and Tasmania. Streamflow was below average for most of the south-east. Some sites in Victoria had record low streamflows.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for November 2025 to January 2026 shows:
Above average rainfall is likely for parts of the east, with the strongest chances over Cape York Peninsula.
Below average rainfall is likely for some areas in the west and north.
Elsewhere, the forecast signal is generally weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
We are moving into the warmest time of the year, when heatwaves become more frequent. Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country. Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia. For parts of southern parts of the country, minimum temperatures have an equal likelihood of being above or below average. There's an increased chance of unusually warm nights across much of the country, especially in northern Australia.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above average in the Australian region.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is currently underway and will continue throughout spring before returning to neutral in early summer.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral. However, a La Niña event is still possible during late spring and early summer.
In summary, our forecast for November 2025 to January 2026 shows: above average rainfall is likely for parts of the east, but below average in parts of the west and north, warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia, and there is an increased risk of heatwaves.
Find our page on the new Bureau website.
We update the long-range forecast weekly, where you can find the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead. Click your location on the map to find out more.
Bye for now.
The next three months are likely to be warmer than usual, but the rainfall forecast is mixed across the country.
Let's look at recent conditions.
October days and nights were warmer than average for much of the mainland.
It is on track to be the third warmest October on record.
Low-intensity to severe heatwaves impacted northern, central and eastern parts of the country from the middle of the month. Many sites had their highest October daytime and night-time temperatures on record. It has been unusually warm along the east coast. Sydney and Brisbane are on track for their warmest October maximum temperatures on record.
It was a wetter than average month across large parts of the country. But, rainfall was below average for the south-west and much of New South Wales.
Following October rainfall, root-zone soil moisture is currently above average in large areas of the north, west and south. In contrast, soils have dried across much of the east, with broad areas of below average soil moisture.
Rainfall during the cool season, from April to October, is crucial for agriculture across southern Australia – replenishing soil moisture, filling water storages and supporting streamflow. Cool season rainfall this year was average to below average for much of south-eastern Australia. However, coastal areas of New South Wales and parts of south-west Western Australia received above average rainfall.
Overall, Australia's total water storage is currently around 70%. Many storages in the north and east are at or near capacity. However, some storages in the south are less than half full.
In October, streamflow was average to above average for most of the north and parts of the east, south-west and Tasmania. Streamflow was below average for most of the south-east. Some sites in Victoria had record low streamflows.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast for November 2025 to January 2026 shows:
Above average rainfall is likely for parts of the east, with the strongest chances over Cape York Peninsula.
Below average rainfall is likely for some areas in the west and north.
Elsewhere, the forecast signal is generally weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
We are moving into the warmest time of the year, when heatwaves become more frequent. Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country. Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia. For parts of southern parts of the country, minimum temperatures have an equal likelihood of being above or below average. There's an increased chance of unusually warm nights across much of the country, especially in northern Australia.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above average in the Australian region.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is currently underway and will continue throughout spring before returning to neutral in early summer.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral. However, a La Niña event is still possible during late spring and early summer.
In summary, our forecast for November 2025 to January 2026 shows: above average rainfall is likely for parts of the east, but below average in parts of the west and north, warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia, and there is an increased risk of heatwaves.
Find our page on the new Bureau website.
We update the long-range forecast weekly, where you can find the latest maps for the weeks and months ahead. Click your location on the map to find out more.
Bye for now.
Long-range forecast: November 2025 to January 2026
30 October 2025
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.