Widespread rain and significant flooding continue across much of northern and north-eastern Australia, with the focus for the next few days shifting to parts of central and south-eastern Queensland.

Let’s jump into the updates now.

First, a look at what’s driving this wet weather and flooding risk. The monsoon trough continues to lie across northern parts of the country, with a pair of tropical low pressure systems embedded along that trough.

The two lows and the trough itself are helping to draw in moisture, feeding it into showers, storms and the risk of heavy falls and flooding across these northern areas.

We’ve certainly seen some very high rainfall numbers through these parts over the last few days, which has fed into our river systems and produced flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Looking at our Flood Warnings current at 11:00 am Saturday morning, Queensland time, we can see how widespread those areas of flooding now are.

In the Northern Territory, Major Flood Warnings are in place for the Daly River, the Katherine River and the Waterhouse River. Significant community impacts are already underway, so if you live in or near these areas it is imperative that you follow all directions from your local emergency services.

Further east, we are starting to see more Flood Warnings developing along the east Queensland coast as rain has continued to fall in those areas over the last couple of days. These come on top of the longstanding Flood Warnings through western Queensland following rainfall earlier in the year.

In addition to our Flood Warning areas, we still have extensive Flood Watches in place. They cover much of northern and eastern Queensland and extend back across parts of the Northern Territory and into the Kimberley in Western Australia.

These Flood Watches indicate where riverine flooding may develop next. Keeping a close eye on these over the next few days is a a really good idea, as we may see these areas extended or upgraded to Flood Warnings as the rain continues to fall.

So exactly how will the rain play out today and over the next few days?

We are still going to see two tropical low pressure systems influencing the rainfall.

In the Northern Territory, the tropical low is starting to push towards the coast, taking the heaviest rainfall offshore. We will still see scattered showers and storms across the Top End, particularly through the west, with the risk of locally heavy falls. However, rainfall totals are unlikely to be as high as what we have seen in previous days.

Further east, a low pressure system over north-western Queensland will continue to draw in significant moisture, feeding a risk of heavy falls through those areas.

A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall is current for some of those north-western parts of the state, including around Richmond. The warning flags hourly rainfall totals of 25 mm to 50 mm and possible 6-hourly totals up to 100 mm.

Stretching south from that low pressure system is a trough. The trough is pushing through central parts of the state towards the Wide Bay–Burnett and will help to draw moisture further south through the course of today.

We are likely to see rain areas and the risk of heavy falls increasing between Bowen and the Sunshine Coast, as moisture moving down from the north interacts with south-easterly winds pushing up from the south.

In anticipation of that increasing risk of heavy falls through south-eastern areas, an additional area has been added to the Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain.

It now covers parts of the Maranoa and Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, South East Coast, Wide Bay–Burnett and the Central Highlands and Coalfields. The warning highlights 6-hourly rainfall totals of 30 mm to 55 mm, with isolated 6-hourly falls up to around 90 mm.

This could start developing later tonight, but it is more likely to develop during the day tomorrow.

As we move through Sunday, we are likely to see the rain reinforced through many of those central and south-eastern areas as the trough continues to draw moisture south.

Heavy falls are most likely around the Wide Bay area and locations further north, with the potential for a couple of low pressure centres to enhance rainfall even further.

By early Tuesday, these areas of low pressure are likely to move offshore, taking the heaviest rain with them and leaving more scattered showers along the coast.

However, it will still be a very wet period between Sunday and Monday.

So how much rain can we expect?

Looking at rainfall totals from midnight last night through to Tuesday morning, we can see a broad swathe of moderate to heavy falls stretching from north-western parts of the state through central areas and down towards the Wide Bay–Burnett region.

The heaviest falls are most likely in areas north of Brisbane, extending towards the Sunshine Coast and Wide Bay–Burnett.

For Brisbane, while the city is not in the main hotspot for the heaviest falls, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out entirely.

Communities across these areas are advised to prepare for the potential risk of heavy rainfall over the next few days.

We will continue to update forecasts and issue warnings as needed. You can always find the latest information via the Bureau’s website and the BOM Weather app.

Stay safe and we will catch you next time.