Unsettled weather continues today and over the next few days across much of eastern New South Wales, with severe storms, heavy falls, damaging wind gusts and dangerous coastal conditions expected.
All of this severe weather is being driven by a low pressure trough lying close to the east coast, with a low pressure system developing along that trough.
Through the course of today, that trough is expected to draw in significant moisture and strong winds, directing them against the southern and central coast of New South Wales. Widespread showers and storms are forecast across eastern New South Wales and parts of adjacent states, but the focus for severe weather over the next few hours will be along the southern parts of the coast.
As a result, a Severe Weather Warning remains current for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. This warning covers parts of the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, the South Coast and adjacent ranges. It highlights six-hourly rainfall totals of 50 mm to 80 mm, isolated six-hourly totals above 100 mm, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h.
This wet and windy weather is not necessarily tied to thunderstorms, but it may still lead to flash flooding, fallen trees or branches, and dangerous driving conditions.
As we move into this afternoon, thunderstorms will play an increasing role in the severe weather risk. Thunderstorms are possible from south-east Queensland through eastern New South Wales and into eastern and northern Victoria.
Severe storms are possible in the areas highlighted on today’s forecast map. Along the South Coast of New South Wales, storms wrapping around the trough may bring heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts, potentially extending south into far eastern parts of East Gippsland.
Further north, across the Hunter, Mid North Coast, Northern Rivers, adjacent northern ranges and into south-east Queensland, severe storms are not just possible but likely. High-end severe thunderstorm impacts may occur, including heavy rainfall, giant hail of five centimetres or greater, and destructive wind gusts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as required through the afternoon, so it’s important to stay up to date via the Bureau’s website or the BOM Weather app.
In addition to rain and wind, dangerous coastal conditions are also expected. Strong south-easterly winds wrapping around the trough are generating damaging surf along parts of the southern and central New South Wales coast.
A Coastal Hazard Warning for damaging surf is in place from Batemans Bay to Cronulla, where wave heights of 4 m to 5 m may lead to coastal erosion. A Hazardous Surf Warning is also current for much of the coast today and over the coming days, highlighting dangerous surf and swell conditions for coastal activities.
This is not a good time to enter the water, with large waves and strong winds expected.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the low pressure trough and system are expected to linger near the coast, gradually shifting northward before weakening and pulling away later in the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend and into early next week, though the risk of severe weather will gradually ease.
Severe storms remain possible across eastern New South Wales on Saturday and in some areas on Sunday, with continued risks of heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail. These severe storm areas are expected to become less widespread early next week.
Rainfall totals out to midday Monday show the heaviest falls focused along the southern and central New South Wales coast, extending north toward the Hunter. Three-day totals of 60 mm to 120 mm are possible, with some locations approaching 200 mm.
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall may also extend south into parts of East Gippsland and north along the New South Wales coast. The highest totals will be associated with thunderstorms, so monitoring the Bureau’s radar is advised.
As this severe weather event continues, it’s essential to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau’s website, the BOM Weather app and social media.
Stay safe, and we’ll catch you next time.
All of this severe weather is being driven by a low pressure trough lying close to the east coast, with a low pressure system developing along that trough.
Through the course of today, that trough is expected to draw in significant moisture and strong winds, directing them against the southern and central coast of New South Wales. Widespread showers and storms are forecast across eastern New South Wales and parts of adjacent states, but the focus for severe weather over the next few hours will be along the southern parts of the coast.
As a result, a Severe Weather Warning remains current for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. This warning covers parts of the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, the South Coast and adjacent ranges. It highlights six-hourly rainfall totals of 50 mm to 80 mm, isolated six-hourly totals above 100 mm, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h.
This wet and windy weather is not necessarily tied to thunderstorms, but it may still lead to flash flooding, fallen trees or branches, and dangerous driving conditions.
As we move into this afternoon, thunderstorms will play an increasing role in the severe weather risk. Thunderstorms are possible from south-east Queensland through eastern New South Wales and into eastern and northern Victoria.
Severe storms are possible in the areas highlighted on today’s forecast map. Along the South Coast of New South Wales, storms wrapping around the trough may bring heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts, potentially extending south into far eastern parts of East Gippsland.
Further north, across the Hunter, Mid North Coast, Northern Rivers, adjacent northern ranges and into south-east Queensland, severe storms are not just possible but likely. High-end severe thunderstorm impacts may occur, including heavy rainfall, giant hail of five centimetres or greater, and destructive wind gusts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued as required through the afternoon, so it’s important to stay up to date via the Bureau’s website or the BOM Weather app.
In addition to rain and wind, dangerous coastal conditions are also expected. Strong south-easterly winds wrapping around the trough are generating damaging surf along parts of the southern and central New South Wales coast.
A Coastal Hazard Warning for damaging surf is in place from Batemans Bay to Cronulla, where wave heights of 4 m to 5 m may lead to coastal erosion. A Hazardous Surf Warning is also current for much of the coast today and over the coming days, highlighting dangerous surf and swell conditions for coastal activities.
This is not a good time to enter the water, with large waves and strong winds expected.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the low pressure trough and system are expected to linger near the coast, gradually shifting northward before weakening and pulling away later in the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend and into early next week, though the risk of severe weather will gradually ease.
Severe storms remain possible across eastern New South Wales on Saturday and in some areas on Sunday, with continued risks of heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail. These severe storm areas are expected to become less widespread early next week.
Rainfall totals out to midday Monday show the heaviest falls focused along the southern and central New South Wales coast, extending north toward the Hunter. Three-day totals of 60 mm to 120 mm are possible, with some locations approaching 200 mm.
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall may also extend south into parts of East Gippsland and north along the New South Wales coast. The highest totals will be associated with thunderstorms, so monitoring the Bureau’s radar is advised.
As this severe weather event continues, it’s essential to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau’s website, the BOM Weather app and social media.
Stay safe, and we’ll catch you next time.
Severe weather update: Severe storms, heavy falls for NSW
16 January 2026
Video current: 1:00 pm AEDT Friday 16/01/26.