Another big storm day is on its way for eastern Australia, with severe thunderstorms likely and even a risk of high-end supercell thunderstorm development. My name is Sarah, and I'll be taking you through what to expect with the thunderstorm forecast and also the potential rainfall with a developing coastal trough. Now, the community impacts with these high-end thunderstorms include the potential for damage to property.
So damage to homes, to cars with the large to giant-sized hail. Now, this includes for the Brisbane area today, continuing into tomorrow, and as well damage from the wind. Destructive winds are possible to bring down trees and power lines, cause power outages and create really hazardous driving conditions, while the rainfall, heavy to locally intense rainfall, that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.
So if there is water across the road, it's not worth risking your life trying to cross it. So getting straight into the thunderstorm forecast today for Sunday. We do have a severe thunderstorm likely area for north-eastern parts of New South Wales, so there is a good chance for places like Grafton, Moree, Tamworth, Port Macquarie, and Scone to see a severe thunderstorm today.
Also within this red area, there is a risk of thunderstorm organisation or supercell development that could create giant-sized hail. So that's hail with a diameter greater than five centimetres, and as well destructive winds. So wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h, but as well locally intense rainfall that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. Now, shifting the focus to the yellow area where severe thunderstorms are possible.
This includes the ranges to the west of Sydney, extending all the way up into south-eastern parts of Queensland, including Brisbane and the Gold Coast, then pushing up into the Central Ranges. And within this yellow area, large hail, so hail with a diameter greater than two centimetres, damaging wind gusts 90 km/h or more above are all possible. And then the rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Moving into tomorrow, severe thunderstorms are likely moving into the south-eastern parts of Queensland, and also an area through the southern interior and continuing about the far north-east of New South Wales. So, areas like Noosa, Brisbane, Byron Bay, Goondiwindi, they've got a good chance of seeing a severe thunderstorm tomorrow. Now, those high-end severe supercell thunderstorms are possible about the south-east coast and pushing down into northern parts of the Northern Rivers of New South Wales, where giant-sized hail or destructive gusts and locally intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding may all occur.
But severe thunderstorms are possible, pushing up towards the Capricornia and into central parts of Queensland as well. Now, taking a look at the rain rate and the synoptic features from this afternoon, we can see there's a really broad area of these showers and storms, but they start to ease off later tonight with just a few remaining. But as we head into tomorrow, those showers and storms are expected to redevelop again with that thunderstorm outbreak.
But significantly, this low-pressure system sitting off the northern parts of the New South Wales coast is expected to develop. Now, winds move clockwise around a low, so it's got the potential to bring this really moisture-laden air, pushing it up onto the coast and up along those windward slopes to bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Now, how much rainfall are we expecting?
It's highly dependent on the exact position of the low-pressure system and how long it lingers to the coast. A little bit of a change in that low-pressure system, if it moves closer to the coast or away from the coast, can change the rainfall forecast a lot. So if you live across eastern parts of Australia, now's a really good time to stay up to date with our latest warnings and also keep an eye on the radar.
You can access them via the Bureau website, app and social media. Then, as always, listen to all the advice from your local emergency services. Bye for now.
So damage to homes, to cars with the large to giant-sized hail. Now, this includes for the Brisbane area today, continuing into tomorrow, and as well damage from the wind. Destructive winds are possible to bring down trees and power lines, cause power outages and create really hazardous driving conditions, while the rainfall, heavy to locally intense rainfall, that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.
So if there is water across the road, it's not worth risking your life trying to cross it. So getting straight into the thunderstorm forecast today for Sunday. We do have a severe thunderstorm likely area for north-eastern parts of New South Wales, so there is a good chance for places like Grafton, Moree, Tamworth, Port Macquarie, and Scone to see a severe thunderstorm today.
Also within this red area, there is a risk of thunderstorm organisation or supercell development that could create giant-sized hail. So that's hail with a diameter greater than five centimetres, and as well destructive winds. So wind gusts in excess of 120 km/h, but as well locally intense rainfall that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. Now, shifting the focus to the yellow area where severe thunderstorms are possible.
This includes the ranges to the west of Sydney, extending all the way up into south-eastern parts of Queensland, including Brisbane and the Gold Coast, then pushing up into the Central Ranges. And within this yellow area, large hail, so hail with a diameter greater than two centimetres, damaging wind gusts 90 km/h or more above are all possible. And then the rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Moving into tomorrow, severe thunderstorms are likely moving into the south-eastern parts of Queensland, and also an area through the southern interior and continuing about the far north-east of New South Wales. So, areas like Noosa, Brisbane, Byron Bay, Goondiwindi, they've got a good chance of seeing a severe thunderstorm tomorrow. Now, those high-end severe supercell thunderstorms are possible about the south-east coast and pushing down into northern parts of the Northern Rivers of New South Wales, where giant-sized hail or destructive gusts and locally intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding may all occur.
But severe thunderstorms are possible, pushing up towards the Capricornia and into central parts of Queensland as well. Now, taking a look at the rain rate and the synoptic features from this afternoon, we can see there's a really broad area of these showers and storms, but they start to ease off later tonight with just a few remaining. But as we head into tomorrow, those showers and storms are expected to redevelop again with that thunderstorm outbreak.
But significantly, this low-pressure system sitting off the northern parts of the New South Wales coast is expected to develop. Now, winds move clockwise around a low, so it's got the potential to bring this really moisture-laden air, pushing it up onto the coast and up along those windward slopes to bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Now, how much rainfall are we expecting?
It's highly dependent on the exact position of the low-pressure system and how long it lingers to the coast. A little bit of a change in that low-pressure system, if it moves closer to the coast or away from the coast, can change the rainfall forecast a lot. So if you live across eastern parts of Australia, now's a really good time to stay up to date with our latest warnings and also keep an eye on the radar.
You can access them via the Bureau website, app and social media. Then, as always, listen to all the advice from your local emergency services. Bye for now.
Severe weather update: Severe storms likely for eastern Australia
15 November 2026
Video current: 1:00 pm AEDT Sunday 15/11/26.