Hello with an update on four tropical lows that we're monitoring over the northern Australian region. Each of these lows does have a chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, and so we’ll have a closer look at each of these systems in more detail.

Keeping in mind though that the forecasts you see here are just one computer model forecast scenario.
Our forecasters looking at a broad range of models when producing forecasts, including the tropical cyclone 7 day outlook.
Broadly across northern Australia we see a lot of cloud on Tuesday afternoon. And we have seen four tropical lows developing, each with a unique identifier: 28U and 30U in the west, 31U in the Gulf of Carpentaria and 29U over the Coral Sea.

All of these four lows may or may not become tropical cyclones, but the next four names on our list are Narelle, Owen, Peta and Riordan. Starting off first in the east with 29U and as of Tuesday afternoon it’s currently sitting around 700 km off the coast of Cairns. Jumping straight into the forecast model, we see this low pressure system deepening as we head into Tuesday night and also Wednesday, gradually inching towards the coast, and we will see showers and winds
picking up across the tropical north-east coast.

By Thursday morning, there is expected to be a 25 to 30% or moderate chance of the system becoming a tropical cyclone. Heading now to the rest of Thursday and Friday, we see the system gradually moving towards the Queensland coast. What this means is that it will have less time to strengthen even further. At this stage, we are expecting the system to cross the coast during Friday somewhere between Cooktown and Cardwell, and regardless of whether it does cross
the coast as a tropical low or tropical cyclone, we still are expected to see increasing winds wrapping into the low as well as heavy rainfall.

Beyond this, as we head into the weekend, there are a range of forecasts still possible. First, most of the models do keep this system over northern parts of Queensland and move it towards the north-west of the state, while some models bring it further south, hugging the coast.
And that could bring heavy falls down to central and even south-eastern parts of Queensland and much of Queensland has had very heavy rainfall recently so any more rainfall could produce further or renewed flooding.

So if you are across northern and eastern Queensland, do keep an eye on those latest forecast updates in the coming days.

Moving west now and to the Gulf of Carpentaria, we have 31U currently sitting over the water. Over the next few days we'll see this system gradually moving in around the Gulf of Carpentaria itself, but it will gradually start to track towards the south-west coast and towards the Northern Territory.

And as we head into Wednesday night, it does have a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. In the second half of the week, we are expecting this low to continue moving out towards the west, bringing heavy rainfall to the Carpentaria
District and also parts of the Top End, and these parts of the Northern Territory have experienced widespread flooding quite recently.

It is expected to move a little bit further north as you head towards the weekend, and places like Darwin could see increased rainfall over the weekend. Finally, now moving out towards the west and the Indian Ocean, we have Tropical Low
28U to the south of Indonesia and 30U over the Kimberley in Western Australia. Moving through these forecast models, we see 30U gradually moving out over the coast of the Kimberley, bringing heavy rainfall to Broome and widespread showers and thunderstorms.

And the system to the south of Indonesia will gradually start to move towards the east. And as we head into Wednesday night, the system further north does have a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and we have already started issuing track maps for the system. The system further south, though, does have a low to moderate chance at this stage of becoming a tropical cyclone as we head into the second part of the week.

Then heading into Thursday, we see these systems start to interact with each other and start to spin around each other.
And this is called the Fujiwhara effect. We'll see the system further south gradually starting to grow at the expense of the other system. And as we head into Friday, we'll see this one here becoming the dominant system, with the other one gradually petering away. However, these two systems are not expected to impact the Australian mainland or offshore territories.

So if you are across northern Australia, first, do keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings. If you are in tropical cyclone areas, it is important that you start making the necessary preparations for yourself as well as your family.
And as always, follow all directions of local authorities so you can get the latest forecasts, including our tropical cyclone track maps at our website. Download our app and follow us on social media.
And as always, please stay safe.