Hello, Miriam at the Bureau of Meteorology with a Weather Update, ahead of wet, stormy weather that's going to be moving south and south-east across the country over the coming days, potentially leading to flooding risks across South Australia, New South Wales and even Victoria.

We'll start by taking a look at our water vapour satellite imagery.

Now, water vapour imagery shows us where moisture sits in the higher levels of the atmosphere and where it might be moving next.

Looking at our imagery from today, we can see from the white and green colours that moisture is really focused through those northern parts of Australia, as it often is. We've got the tropical low pressure system 21U sitting over the Kimberley, but we've also got moist infeeds coming off the Gulf of Carpentaria and off the Coral Sea.

This is bringing moisture across central parts of the continent, and over the coming days we're going to see this pattern continuing, with that moisture pushing further towards the south-east. This is going to act as fuel for showers and thunderstorms today, tomorrow and over the weekend.

Let's take a look at that forecast now.

Starting with today, we can see that showers and storms are most widespread in the north, but they are starting to push into northern parts of South Australia, parts of south-west Queensland and far northern New South Wales.

As we continue moving through Friday, we will see that pattern continuing, with the rain starting to ramp up a little bit more through parts of central New South Wales as well as northern South Australia.

Our thunderstorm forecast for the next couple of days shows the same pattern. For today, storms are possible across much of the north of the country and those central areas.

Severe storms marked on this map in yellow are possible across some of those northern areas, but also across parts of Queensland, far northern New South Wales, South Australia and the far south-eastern tip of the Northern Territory.

Now, heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding is definitely the main risk with any severe storms that do develop.

Moving into tomorrow, we see that severe storm area growing more extensive and pushing further south towards central parts of New South Wales. We also see another storm area developing along the east coast, across parts of the Hunter and the Blue Mountains to the west of Sydney.

In those areas, it's not just heavy rainfall that we're keeping an eye on. It's also the risk of damaging winds and large hail through the course of our Friday.

Moving into the weekend, we're going to see that moisture continuing to flow in from the north, pulling across South Australia and into the south-eastern states.

Through Saturday and into Sunday, we'll see the rain ramping up across inland New South Wales and eventually pushing down into Victoria as well.

Now remember that moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere is acting as fuel. So any showers and storms that do develop can tap into that and bring that risk of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

Severe storms on Saturday are likely across those northern parts, are possible I should say, across those northern parts of South Australia, possibly as far south as Port Augusta or so. And we'll see them continuing a risk across western parts of New South Wales.

Into Sunday, though, that's when our severe storm risk becomes most widespread across much of northern and eastern South Australia, parts of southern New South Wales and much of Victoria as well. Again, at this time it'll be the heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding that will be our key concern.

Now it's a little too early to say exactly what rainfall totals we can expect today, tomorrow and across the weekend, especially as thunderstorms are going to be playing a large part in them through this period.

But we do know that we are potentially going to see significant impacts for communities, particularly across those inland areas where the wet weather is a little bit more unusual.

Some of the key impacts we need to keep an eye on over the coming days.

Firstly, the locally heavy falls and the flash flooding. That could quickly lead to roads and access routes becoming muddy or impassable, potentially even being cut across this period. This may have impacts for more remote properties and communities, potentially leading to isolation if we do get those higher end rainfall totals.

Over the next few days, we'll continue to bring you more updates, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the Bureau's website and weather app for any thunderstorm warnings or other warnings we may need to issue at this time.

As always, you can find that information via www.bom.gov.au, on our app or via our social media.

Have a great day. We'll catch you next time.

Weather update: Wet weather building for south-east Australia

05 February 2026

Video current: 12:30 pm AEDT Thursday 05/02/26.

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