Hello with an update on widespread rain building across central and south-eastern Australia from this weekend. For central parts of the country, heavy rainfall could produce further flooding, while in the south-east, rainfall will be very welcome by many communities and in some areas be the best rainfall in months.
First, let's have a look at the total forecast rainfall out to Tuesday night and keeping in mind this is just one computer model forecast scenario, and the forecasts are updated regularly. But this gives you a sense of where we are expecting to see the focus of the rain. That's all the way from Western Australia through the interior of the country and South Australia, and into the south-east, including southern New South Wales, Victoria and even into western parts of Tasmania. As you can see though the heaviest rainfall is expected across eastern parts of the Northern Territory and into western Queensland, and in the coming days these areas could see between 100mm to in excess of 300mm, particularly around the northern and eastern flanks of a very slow moving low pressure system. This part of outback Australia is already covered by Flood Watches, and warnings and heavy rainfall could renew a prolonged flooding. So ahead of this, we are likely to be issuing a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain and possibly also damaging winds this weekend. So keep an eye on that if you are across central Australia.
Further south and into South Australia, we are expecting to see between 50mm to in excess of 100mm over the next few days, all the way from the north and even down into the mid north and central parts of the state. So northern parts of South Australia have already seen well above average rainfall so far this year. But some of the parts, particularly down towards Adelaide, have largely missed out so far with the last few weather systems. And across south-eastern parts of the country we will see more modest totals for southern parts of New South Wales and western Tasmania up to 25mm. But as soon as we move into Victoria and eastern parts of South Australia, we can see that these rainfall totals are not uniformly distributed. We can see high rainfall pockets in red, indicating more than 50mm right next to areas with no rainfall at all. And what this tells us is that this rainfall is expected to come from showers and thunderstorms. And so it will really depend on where we see these showers and thunderstorms really forming.
So what are the weather watch points over the next few days? Well, first across central Australia. Heavy rainfall could produce further flooding and this could create dangerous or disrupted travel conditions. For agricultural communities rain will be very welcome, but with high humidity levels and warm temperatures, this could produce fungal infections, including brown rot. So that would be another watch point as well.
So now let's have a look at this day by day. And starting off with Saturday, we do see a clear start right across southern Australia to begin with. But through the day this cold front and trough will move through the Bight and also through the Southern Ocean. And as it does, it will draw down tropical moisture from Western Australia, but also from the tropical low over Queensland right down into the south of the country. So into the evening we will see some showers and storms building across the Eyre Peninsula, even possibly pushing into Adelaide later at night. And we will also see some showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, across eastern parts of New South Wales. Further north, rainfall is really building around that low pressure system across central Australia.
And now as you head into Sunday, we can see that cold front continuing to push into the south-east of the country and those colder south-westerly winds combined with that humid air producing widespread rain as we head into Sunday afternoon. And again, heavy rainfall really developing and continuing across central parts of the country. On Sunday afternoon, we could see widespread thunderstorms producing pockets of heavy rain and flash flooding for South Australia, Victoria and also potentially Tasmania. And we do see those showers and storms pushing into southern parts of New South Wales and the ACT, a little bit of a clearing pattern though, across the far southern coastline with those cooler and drier southerly winds coming through.
On Monday we do see that rain band continuing to push towards the east, a bit more of a clearing pattern as you see the next high pressure system move in, but heavy rainfall really dipping down into northern parts of South Australia with a very slow moving low pressure system. So those rainfall totals really build as we head into next week.
And now on Tuesday we do see another cold front moving in from the south that will draw even more tropical moisture from that low pressure system. And we do see widespread showers and storms this time for South Australia and again for Victoria. We could see some severe thunderstorms embedded in that as well. So widespread rain, showers and possible flooding across much of central Australia. We are expecting to see further Flood Watches and warnings, as well as Severe Weather Warnings being issued over the next few days. You can keep up to date with these warnings and forecasts on our website and app. Follow us on social media and as always, please stay safe.
First, let's have a look at the total forecast rainfall out to Tuesday night and keeping in mind this is just one computer model forecast scenario, and the forecasts are updated regularly. But this gives you a sense of where we are expecting to see the focus of the rain. That's all the way from Western Australia through the interior of the country and South Australia, and into the south-east, including southern New South Wales, Victoria and even into western parts of Tasmania. As you can see though the heaviest rainfall is expected across eastern parts of the Northern Territory and into western Queensland, and in the coming days these areas could see between 100mm to in excess of 300mm, particularly around the northern and eastern flanks of a very slow moving low pressure system. This part of outback Australia is already covered by Flood Watches, and warnings and heavy rainfall could renew a prolonged flooding. So ahead of this, we are likely to be issuing a Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain and possibly also damaging winds this weekend. So keep an eye on that if you are across central Australia.
Further south and into South Australia, we are expecting to see between 50mm to in excess of 100mm over the next few days, all the way from the north and even down into the mid north and central parts of the state. So northern parts of South Australia have already seen well above average rainfall so far this year. But some of the parts, particularly down towards Adelaide, have largely missed out so far with the last few weather systems. And across south-eastern parts of the country we will see more modest totals for southern parts of New South Wales and western Tasmania up to 25mm. But as soon as we move into Victoria and eastern parts of South Australia, we can see that these rainfall totals are not uniformly distributed. We can see high rainfall pockets in red, indicating more than 50mm right next to areas with no rainfall at all. And what this tells us is that this rainfall is expected to come from showers and thunderstorms. And so it will really depend on where we see these showers and thunderstorms really forming.
So what are the weather watch points over the next few days? Well, first across central Australia. Heavy rainfall could produce further flooding and this could create dangerous or disrupted travel conditions. For agricultural communities rain will be very welcome, but with high humidity levels and warm temperatures, this could produce fungal infections, including brown rot. So that would be another watch point as well.
So now let's have a look at this day by day. And starting off with Saturday, we do see a clear start right across southern Australia to begin with. But through the day this cold front and trough will move through the Bight and also through the Southern Ocean. And as it does, it will draw down tropical moisture from Western Australia, but also from the tropical low over Queensland right down into the south of the country. So into the evening we will see some showers and storms building across the Eyre Peninsula, even possibly pushing into Adelaide later at night. And we will also see some showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, across eastern parts of New South Wales. Further north, rainfall is really building around that low pressure system across central Australia.
And now as you head into Sunday, we can see that cold front continuing to push into the south-east of the country and those colder south-westerly winds combined with that humid air producing widespread rain as we head into Sunday afternoon. And again, heavy rainfall really developing and continuing across central parts of the country. On Sunday afternoon, we could see widespread thunderstorms producing pockets of heavy rain and flash flooding for South Australia, Victoria and also potentially Tasmania. And we do see those showers and storms pushing into southern parts of New South Wales and the ACT, a little bit of a clearing pattern though, across the far southern coastline with those cooler and drier southerly winds coming through.
On Monday we do see that rain band continuing to push towards the east, a bit more of a clearing pattern as you see the next high pressure system move in, but heavy rainfall really dipping down into northern parts of South Australia with a very slow moving low pressure system. So those rainfall totals really build as we head into next week.
And now on Tuesday we do see another cold front moving in from the south that will draw even more tropical moisture from that low pressure system. And we do see widespread showers and storms this time for South Australia and again for Victoria. We could see some severe thunderstorms embedded in that as well. So widespread rain, showers and possible flooding across much of central Australia. We are expecting to see further Flood Watches and warnings, as well as Severe Weather Warnings being issued over the next few days. You can keep up to date with these warnings and forecasts on our website and app. Follow us on social media and as always, please stay safe.
Weather update: Widespread rain for central and south-east Aus
20 February 2026
Video current: 12:30 pm AEDT Friday 20/02/26.