Murray–Darling Basin: Future outlook
Future prospects
This section looks forward 12 months and considers what water assets, claims and commitments might affect the region's water resources.
Table N28 shows that there is a surplus of available water assets over water liabilities and future water commitments that are expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date.
| Volume (ML) | |
| Total water assets as at 30 June 20151 | 17,031,329 |
| less water assets not available to be accessed, taken or delivered: | |
| dead storage | 704,681 |
| conveyance water2 | 897,210 |
| inactive storage3 | 1,880,235 |
| less total water liabilities as at 30 June 20154 | 2,473,044 |
| Subtotal | 11,076,159 |
| less future water commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date: | |
| diversion of surface water allocations and rights5 | 10,850,000 |
| extraction of groundwater allocations and rights5 | 1,375,000 |
| Surplus /deficit of available water assets over water liabilities and future water commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date | (1,148,841) |
| add future rights expected to be realised within 12 months of the reporting date: | |
| net precipitation/storage inflow6 | 8,890,000 |
| delivery of water under inter-region agreement7 | 1,690,000 |
| Surplus/deficit of available water assets and expected future inflows over water liabilities and future commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date | 9,441,159 |
1 Total water assets in the table includes volume of water held in storages, lakes, and wetlands connected to rivers, weirs, locks and river reaches in regulated rivers, inter-region claim on water, and groundwater assets.
2 Conveyance water includes base volumes held in weirs, locks, and river reaches in regulated rivers. These volumes are not available for delivery under normal circumstances, and have to be maintained to deliver water to settle liabilities and commitments.
3 Inactive storages are lakes and wetlands (e.g., Lake Alexandrina and Lake Albert) from which water is not available to settle water liabilities and future commitments within 12 months of the reporting date.
4 Water liabilities on 30 June 2015 include remaining surface water and groundwater allocations to entitlement holders.
5 Expected diversion/extraction of water allocations and rights is the average value from 2012–13 to 2014–15 years.
6 Expected storage inflow are based on the 2014-15 year, which was the lowest recorded inflow during the past few years. The climate and soil moisture conditions are expected to be similar to the 2014-15 year.
7 Expected inter-region transfer is an average for the past three reporting years. This volume mainly includes the required annual release (RAR) that Snowy Hydro delivers to the Tumut River and the River Murray.
For more detailed information about future water and climate predictions, including seasonal streamflow forecasts, please see Climate outlooks website.
Contingent water assets and contingent water liabilities
Contingent water assets—non-extractable portion of groundwater
Jurisdictions are responsible within the Murray–Darling Basin region for setting annual extraction limits on the groundwater aquifers within sustainable diversion limit (SDL) areas. This limit is established to protect groundwater dependent ecosystems. Water up to this prescribed maximum extraction limit is recognised as a water asset in the Statement of Water Assets and Water Liabilities. Any aquifer volumes greater than this annual extraction limit are considered a contingent water asset for aquifers in the region; however, there is currently insufficient information available regarding groundwater resources in the region to allow for a volumetric estimate.
Contingent water assets—inter-region claim on water
Inter-region claims on water that can be considered as contingent water assets in the Murray–Darling Basin region are a claim on Snowy Hydro to release water to the region and the claim by Grampians Wimmera–Mallee Water (GWM Water) on the Glenelg catchment.
The Snowy Hydro claim, known as the RAR, is estimated considering several input variables at the commencement of the water year; however, input variables on which the actual entitled release depends include dry inflow sequence volume (DISV) reduction for the year (a variable to reflect actual inflow during the year) and the volume of water provided by Snowy Hydro to New South Wales irrigators under separate agreements.
Volumes for these two variables are not known at the beginning of the year so the Snowy Hydro claim is a contingent water asset for the MDB region.
Under a Victorian bulk entitlement, GWM Water is able to transfer water to the Wimmera–Mallee supply system, located within the Murray–Darling Basin region's boundaries from:
the Glenelg River upstream and including Rocklands Reservoir
the first and second Wannon creeks upstream of and including the weirs.
The bulk entitlement requires GWM Water to release water for the purposes of providing a nominal flow for domestic and stock use and other social and environmental purposes in the Glenelg River downstream of Rocklands Reservoir. The volume that can be diverted to the Murray–Darling Basin will therefore depend upon the inflows into the Glenelg River and the requirement to meet the Glenelg compensation flows. Therefore, the claim is a contingent water asset.
Contingent water liabilities
There are no recognised contingent water liabilities in the Murray–Darling Basin region.