Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program Portal

Introduction

The Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) Portal provides seasonal forecasts from the couple dynamical GCM, POAMA. Gridded forecasts are presented using a navigable map overlain with geospatial information. Point foecasts for selected meteorological stations are also available, along with seasonal forecasts of large scale climate drivers such as ENSO.

Project background

Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI) Australia is providing assistance to vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region to meet high priority climate change adaptation needs. One of the ICCAI project components – strategic planning and vulnerability assessment – is delivered through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). This program aids partner countries with assessing key climate vulnerabilities and risks, formulating appropriate adaptation strategies and plans, and mainstreaming adaptation into decision making.

PASAP acknowledges that seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island countries to climate change. The program also recognises the need to improve seasonal climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models.

• Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record.
• Dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause.

At present, the Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project project uses statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Through PASAP, seasonal outlooks are based on the current Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). Dynamical models such as POAMA start with the latest ocean, atmosphere and land surface states and progress them forward in time in accordance with the physics of the earth system, such that the effects of both seasonal climate variability and slower background changes in climate are combined in the generation of a seasonal forecast. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system will ultimately provide more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region targeted by PASAP.