Climate outlooks – more outlook maps and graphs
New 'Chance of 3-day totals' maps, and more information for any location.
Climate Driver Update
Climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans and the Tropics
Sea surface temperature maps
Sea surface temperature maps are not available for forecasts before Spring 2018
SST outlooks for the next 3 months
ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region. El Niños typically produce drier seasons, and La Niñas drive wetter years, but the influence of each event varies, particularly in conjunction with other climate influences.
International climate model outlooks
The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.
These graphs show the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.
Weekly sea surface temperatures
Graphs of the table values
Monthly sea surface temperatures
Graphs of the table values
5-day sub-surface temperatures
- See also: Links open in new window
- Animation of recent sub-surface temperature changes
- Archive of sub-surface temperature charts
Southern Oscillation Index
- Data Source: Links open in new window
- TAO/TRITON data
Cloudiness near the Date Line
About El Niño and La Niña (ENSO)
ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña conditions.
The term El Niño refers to the extensive warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which leads to a major shift in weather patterns across the Pacific. This occurs every three to eight years and is associated with a weaker Walker Circulation (see diagram below) and drier conditions in eastern Australia. El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the term used to describe the oscillation between the El Niño phase and the La Niña, or opposite, phase.
In the eastern Pacific, the northward flowing Humbolt current brings cooler water from the Southern Ocean to the tropics. Furthermore, along the equator, strong east to southeasterly Trade winds cause the ocean currents in the eastern Pacific to draw water from the deeper ocean towards the surface, helping to keep the surface cool. However in the far western Pacific there is no cool current, and weaker Trades mean that this "upwelling" effect is reduced. Hence waters in the western equatorial Pacific are able to warm more effectively under the influence of the tropical sun. This means that under "normal" conditions the western tropical Pacific is 8 to 10°C warmer than the eastern tropical Pacific. While the ocean surface north and northeast of Australia is typically 28 to 30°C or warmer, near South America the Pacific Ocean is close to 20°C. This warmer area of ocean is a source for convection and is associated with cloudiness and rainfall.
However, during El Niño years, the trade winds weaken and the central and eastern tropical Pacific warms up. This change in ocean temperature sees a shift in cloudiness and rainfall from the western to the central tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following figure demonstrates the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.
This graph shows the values of the SOI between 1991 and mid-2015. Monthly SOI data.
Each phase of the ENSO has a very different effect on the Australian climate. Events generally have an autumn to autumn pattern of evolution and decay. That is, they typically begin to develop during autumn, strengthen in winter/spring, then decay during summer and autumn of the following year. These effects are described in further detail on the following pages: El Niño and La Niña.
Further information about the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impact on the Australian Climate.
The Climate Driver Update provides the latest information on the state of ENSO and the likely effect this will have on Australia.
Timeline of monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values since 1876
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is defined by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative phase typically sees above average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, while a positive phase brings drier than average seasons.
International climate model outlooks
The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.
Thse graphs show the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.
About the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact rainfall and temperature patterns over Australia. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures can provide more moisture for frontal systems and lows crossing Australia.
Indian Ocean Dipole
Sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD. The IOD is one of the key drivers of Australia's climate and can have a significant impact on agriculture. This is because events generally coincide with the winter crop growing season. The IOD has three phases: neutral, positive and negative. Events usually start around May or June, peak between August and October and then rapidly decay when the monsoon arrives in the southern hemisphere around the end of spring.
Indian Ocean Dipole years
The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) history
About the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) outlook
The Southern Annular Mode can result in enhanced rainfall in regions of southern Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), is a mode of variability which can affect rainfall in southern Australia. The SAM refers to the north/south movement of the strong westerly winds that dominate the middle to higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The belt of strong westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere is also associated with the storm systems and cold fronts that move from west to east.
During the summer and autumn months (December through to May) the SAM is showing an increasing tendency to remain in a positive phase, with westerly winds contracted towards the south pole.
The contribution that the SAM makes to the climate variability in Australia and the apparent positive trend in the SAM are relatively recent discoveries and as such are still active areas of research.
The diagram above shows the area affected by the Southern Annular Mode, when it occurs and how long it may last.
In terms of mean sea level pressure, the SAM affects the coastal regions of southern Australia throughout the year. Extreme negative phases of the SAM can cause increased rainfall and cold air outbreaks in southern Australia.
Each SAM event, both positive and negative, tends to last for around ten days to two weeks. The time frame between positive and negative events however is quite random, but is typically in the range of a week to a few months.
The impact that the SAM has on rainfall varies greatly depending on season and region. If Australia were a few degrees further south, then the impact of changes in SAM would be much more pronounced. The diagram below describes the average impact on rainfall during a "positive" (westerly winds further south) SAM event.
The SAM also has an impact on temperatures. In general, in areas where rainfall is increased, temperature is decreased whilst where rainfall is decreased, temperature is increased.
The diagram above shows the impact that a "positive" SAM event (decreased westerly winds) has on Australian rainfall. Shading indicates daily rainfall anomaly in mm/day for each of the seasons. (Source: Hendon et al. 2007)
During July 2007, the SAM was in a strong negative phase. This was reflected in rainfall patterns across southern Australia.
- Have a look at the latest atmospheric circulation patterns.
- Current values of the Antarctic Oscillation Index (an index related to the strength and phase of the SAM) are available from the US National Weather Service (NOAA)
- The relationship between the SAM and Australian rainfall is discussed in detail in this research paper.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. It can be characterised as an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.
Tropical Climate Update
MJO phase diagram
*Note: There are missing satellite observations from 16/3/1978 to 31/12/1978.
The MJO phase diagram illustrates the progression of the MJO through different phases, which generally coincide with locations along the equator around the globe. RMM1 and RMM2 are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO. When the index is within the centre circle the MJO is considered weak, meaning it is difficult to discern using the RMM methods. Outside of this circle the index is stronger and will usually move in an anti-clockwise direction as the MJO moves from west to east. For convenience, we define 8 different MJO phases in this diagram.
Daily averaged OLR anomalies
Westerly wind anomalies
Time-longitude plots of daily averaged OLR anomalies (left) and 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) westerly wind anomalies (right) are useful for indicating the movement of the MJO.
How to read the Time-Longitude plots
The vertical axis represents time with the most distant past on the top and becoming more recent as you move down the chart. The Horizontal axis represents longitude.
Eastward movement of a strong MJO event would be seen as a diagonal line of violet (downward from left to right) in the OLR diagram, and a corresponding diagonal line of purple in the wind diagram. These diagonal lines would most likely fall between 60°E and 150°E and they would be repeated nearly every 1 to 2 months.
About the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) outlook
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is associated with weekly to monthly periods of enhanced and suppressed rainfall over parts of Australia.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a global-scale feature of the tropical atmosphere.
The MJO is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterized as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. However, the signal of the MJO in the tropical atmosphere is not always present.
MJO effects are most evident over the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific. It influences the timing, development and strength of the major global monsoon patterns, including the Indian and Australian monsoons.
Tropical cyclones are also more likely to develop in association with certain phases of a strong MJO event.
The MJO is associated with variations in wind, cloudiness, and rainfall. Most tropical rainfall comes from tall thunderstorms which have very cold tops. Thunderstorms that have cold tops emit only low levels of longwave radiation. Therefore, the MJO can be monitored by using satellite measurements of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to identify areas of cloudiness (low OLR) within the tropics.
The diagram above shows the area most affected by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the seasons during which the MJO's influence on Australia is greatest, and for how long each active phase of the MJO typically lasts.
The MJO has its greatest effect on the tropical areas of Australia during summer. It may have some effect on parts of southern Australia, however this impact appears small when compared to the effect on northern regions, and remains the subject of research.
The MJO can have an effect on the timing and intensity of "active" monsoon periods in northern Australia. This can lead to enhanced rainfall - in both the intensity of the rainfall and the duration of the rainfall.
During late January 2006, an active phase of the MJO coincided with an active monsoon period, resulting in enhanced rainfall over northern Australia.
The following links provide further information on the MJO.
- The Tropical Climate Update provides information on the current phase of the MJO.
- Technical information and maps relating to the Real-time Multivariate MJO Index, which is a way of monitoring the climate and weather variations caused by the MJO. Please note that this product is a research product, and as such is not always updated and may be under-going continual changes as it is developed.
SSTs for July 2022 were slightly cooler than average along the equator between 160°E and 160°W, with SSTs generally close to average along the rest of the equator across the Pacific. SSTs were also slightly cooler than average over much of the tropical central and eastern Pacific south of the equator. As during June, cool anomalies were strongest close to South America. Warm SST anomalies were present over much of the Maritime Continent.
Compared to June, cool anomalies have strengthened in the central tropical Pacific, while warm anomalies around north-western Australia, the Top End, and Gulf of Carpentaria have strengthened.
Values of the three key NINO indices for July 2022 were: NINO3 −0.1 °C, NINO3.4 −0.4 °C, and NINO4 −0.6 °C.
For the week ending 14 August 2022, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean were cooler than average along much of the equator between 160°E and 110°W. Compared to two weeks ago, cool anomalies have strengthened and increased in extent in the central equatorial Pacific. Cool SST anomalies persist to the south of the equator in much of the tropical central and eastern Pacific. A small area of warm anomalies remains in the eastern equatorial Pacific, between 110°W and the South American coastline.
Warm SST anomalies continue over the Maritime Continent and around much of Australia; mostly in the north, south-east, and south-west.
The latest values of the three NINO indices for the week ending 14 August 2022 were: NINO3 −0.2 °C, NINO3.4 −0.6 °C, and NINO4 −0.6 °C.
Persistent NINO3 or NINO3.4 values cooler than −0.8 °C are typical of La Niña, while persistent values warmer than +0.8 °C typically indicate El Niño.
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the 30 days ending 14 August 2022 was +11.0. The 90-day SOI value was +13.9.
The 30-day SOI has risen slightly over the past fortnight.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Trade winds for the 5 days ending 14 August 2022 were slightly stronger than average over much of the western half of the tropical Pacific. Trade wind anomalies were close to average over the eastern tropical Pacific.
During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, but may potentially re-strengthen over Africa or the Indian Ocean in the coming days. A weak or indiscernible MJO has little influence on Australian climate, while MJO over the Indian Ocean may bring warmer days to parts of western and south-eastern Australia at this time of year.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is underway. The latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index value, for the week ending 14 August2022, was −1.15 °C. The IOD index value has been continuously at or below the threshold (−0.4 °C) since mid-June.
Cool anomalies are present in the north-west of the Indian Ocean basin close to the Horn of Africa, while weak warm SST anomalies continue across the east of the Indian Ocean, including in waters close to Indonesia and Australia. The establishment of a clear gradient in the temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean is consistent with the emergence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.
A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.
All five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate a negative IOD is likely to persist through November. By December, all models indicate a rapid decline of IOD index values, with three of five close to or outside of the threshold value.
Cloudiness near the Date Line had been consistently below average (i.e. positive outgoing longwave radiation, or OLR, anomalies) since June 2021. It continued to be below average during the first half of August 2022, with only a few periods of close to average anomalies during late May to mid-July 2022.
Equatorial cloudiness near the Date Line typically decreases during La Niña (positive OLR anomalies) and increases during El Niño (negative OLR anomalies).
The four-month sequence of equatorial Pacific sub-surface temperature anomalies (to July 2022) shows a small area of weak cool anomalies has appeared in the central equatorial Pacific up to 200 m in depth, with weak warm anomalies persisting but decreasing in extent in the western and eastern tropical Pacific subsurface, as compared to June.
This breaks the month-on-month trends of warm anomalies increasing their eastward extent during autumn and into June.
For the five days ending 14 August 2022, sub-surface temperatures along the equator were mostly close to average. Between a depth of 750 m and 125 m in a region between 145°W and 120°W, temperatures were more than 3 degrees cooler than average. Compared to two weeks ago, this region of cool anomalies has increased in strength and moved eastwards.
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña ALERT. This is due to both renewed cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean as well as climate models indicating La Niña is likely during the austral spring and early summer. Historically, when La Niña ALERT criteria have been met, La Niña has subsequently developed around 70% of the time; this is approximately triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean indicators are currently at neutral levels but show a renewed push towards La Niña. Central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over the past six weeks, while the sub-surface has also seen recent cooling. Some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness near the Date Line continue to show a La Niña-like signal.
Four of seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña could return by early-to-mid spring. The remaining three models maintain a neutral, though cooler than average, outlook for central Pacific SSTs for the remainder of 2022.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index has been very close to or within negative IOD thresholds (i.e. at or below −0.4 °C) since early June, with the latest weekly value one of the strongest observed so far during this event. All surveyed climate models indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral and is likely to be mostly positive for the coming three months. During the spring months, positive SAM has a drying influence for western Tasmania, with a wetter influence for NSW and far eastern Victoria.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Several modesl suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen in the coming days over Africa or the eastern Indian Ocean and progress eastwards, with the remaining models generally remaining weak or indiscernible. While over the African and eastern Indian Ocean regions, the MJO typically increases cloudiness in the eastern Indian Ocean, and decreases cloudiness for northern parts of the Maritime Continent.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral. Values are expected to be positive for the remainder of August, and generally positive throughout spring.
A positive SAM has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia at this time of year, but increases the likelihood of rainfall in eastern New South Wales, far eastern Victoria, and parts of southern Queensland.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral. However, recent climate model outlooks and current conditions have led to the Bureau's ENSO Outlook moving to La Niña ALERT, meaning there is around a 70% chance (three times the normal likelihood) of La Niña forming later in 2022.
Four of the seven surveyed international climate models predict neutral, but cooler than average, temperatures in the central tropical Pacific to persist through September, with three showing stronger cooling, reaching or exceeding the La Niña threshold value (−0.8 °C). By October, four of the seven models indicate SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean will exceed the La Niña threshold value.
While back-to-back La Niña events are not uncommon, and have occurred in approximately half of all past events since 1900, three in a row is less common and has only occurred three times since 1900: 1954–57, 1973–76, and 1998–2001.
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