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Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Rainfall deficiencies and water availability at the end of August

• August rainfall was above average in central and inland areas, but below average in Tasmania, parts of the west and south-east coasts, and large areas in eastern Queensland.
• Long-range forecasts for 4-month rainfall deficiencies to the end of September show rainfall deficiencies likely for much of eastern Queensland, parts of eastern New South Wales,  eastern Victoria, south-west Western Australia, and parts of northern Australia.
• Areas with 2026-to-date rainfall deficiencies expanded in the west of Western Australia and in Tasmania, and persisted in north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland.
• Areas with rainfall deficiencies for the latest 24 months, expanded and intensified in the south-west of Western Australia and in Tasmania, and persisted in other south-eastern states.
• Soil moisture remained below average in parts of western and eastern Australia, declining through areas of Western Australia and Tasmania, with extensive below-average conditions persisting across Queensland.
• Evaporative stress remained elevated across parts of western and eastern Australia, increasing through much of Tasmania but easing within inland New South Wales, Victoria, and south-eastern South Australia.
• Streamflow was lower than average at many sites across southern Australia, the south-west of Western Australia, parts of eastern Australia and southern Queensland.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states are at or below 50% of their capacity.
• Groundwater levels were above average in northern Australia and below average across southern Australia.

High August rainfall across inland Australia, contrasting with drier coastal areas

August area-averaged rainfall totals were above average for all states and territories except for Queensland and Tasmania.

August rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all Augusts since 1900) for:

• Tasmania
• parts of southern and far eastern Victoria and adjacent south-eastern New South Wales
• Western Australia's south-west and some areas in the west
• parts of eastern Queensland.

With the area-averaged rainfall 49% below average, Tasmania had its seventh-driest August on record, the driest since 1982.

August rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all Augusts since 1900) for:

• most of South Australia, northern Victoria and western and central New South Wales
• much of central and southern Western Australia
• large parts of western and south-western Queensland and pockets along the state's north-east coast
• the southern half of the Northern Territory and small areas in the Territory's far north.

South Australia had its fourth-wettest August on record and the wettest since 1992, with the area-averaged rainfall more than double the average.

Winter (3-month) rainfall

June to August rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all winter periods since 1900) for:

• Western Australia's south-west and some areas in the state's north
• large parts of eastern Queensland and New South Wales
• eastern parts of Victoria and Tasmania.

June to August rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all winter periods since 1900) for:

• most of South Australia, northern Victoria and much of southern Western Australia
• much of western and central New South Wales
• large parts of western and south-western Queensland and along the state's north-east coast
• southern Northern Territory and smaller areas in the north.

Winter rainfall was the highest on record for an area spanning the border between South Australia and New South Wales. Many stations had their record highest winter total rainfall.

South Australia had its seventh-wettest winter on record, the wettest since 1978.

Multi-year (36-month) rainfall deficiencies

Rainfall for the 36 months ending in August 2026 was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all September to August 36-month periods since 1900) for:

• large areas of the west and south-west of Western Australia
• south-eastern agricultural areas in South Australia
• much of Victoria
• areas along New South Wales western slopes, and into south-eastern Queensland
• Tasmania.

Long-range forecast for September to November

The long-range forecast, released on 3 September 2026 for September to November 2026 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of the south and east and above average across the western half of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall deficiency forecasts

Rainfall deficiency areas are those with rainfall in the lowest 10% of record.

Deficiencies to the end of September

Long-range forecasts from our ACCESS-S model indicate that for 4-month deficiencies (1-month forecast plus 3-month existing deficiencies) ending in September 2026:

• Existing June to August deficiencies are favoured to persist during September in the south-west of Western Australia and to expand across eastern Queensland, parts of eastern New South Wales and to develop in parts of northern Australia.

Forecasts indicate that for 7-month deficiencies (1-month forecast plus 6-month existing deficiencies) ending in September 2026:

• Existing March to August deficiencies are favoured to persist during September in the south-west and to expand in areas in eastern Australia.

Deficiencies to the end of November

Forecasts indicate that for 6-month deficiencies (3-month forecast plus 3-month existing deficiencies) ending in November 2026:

• Areas with June to August deficiencies in south-west Western Australia, eastern Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales are favoured to persist during spring.
• Winter deficiency areas are favoured to ease and contract during spring in eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.

Forecast 9-month deficiencies (3-month forecast plus 6-month existing deficiencies) ending in November 2026 indicate:

• Existing March to August deficiencies are favoured to persist through spring in parts of south-west Western Australia, far-eastern Victoria and adjacent coastal New South Wales.
• March to August deficiencies have roughly an equal chance of easing or persisting in small areas of eastern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales, and some inland parts of south-west Western Australia.

Deficiencies for the 8 months to the end of August 

For the 8 months ending in August 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (August rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of years, since 1900) include:

• parts of north-eastern New South Wales into south-eastern Queensland
• areas of the south-west and the Pilbara–Gascoyne region in Western Australia
• small areas in Tasmania.

During August, areas of rainfall deficiency expanded slightly and intensified in the south-west and the Pilbara–Gascoyne region in Western Australia and developed in small areas of Tasmania. Rainfall deficiency areas persisted in north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Deficiencies for the 24 months to the end of August

For the latest 24-month period ending in August 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (24-month rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, since 1900) extend across parts of:

• the south-west in Western Australia
• the east and north of the Fleurieu Peninsula in South Australia
• southern Victoria
• the Riverina in New South Wales
• eastern Tasmania.

Compared with the 24-month period ending in July 2026, areas of rainfall deficiency intensified and expanded in the south-west of Western Australia and eastern Tasmania and contracted slightly in Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales.

Soil moisture was below average across parts of western and eastern Australia

During August, root-zone soil moisture declined across parts of Tasmania and Western Australia, particularly in the north-west and south-west, while below-average conditions persisted across eastern Australia.

August root-zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average for:

• large parts of eastern Queensland and Cape York Peninsula
• parts of coastal and north-eastern New South Wales
• parts of south-eastern Victoria
• parts of the north-west, south-west, and south of Western Australia, including isolated areas in the lowest 1%
• small areas of central-western South Australia and south-eastern Northern Territory
• parts of Tasmania.

Above-average soil moisture remained widespread across central and southern inland Australia during August, although becoming less extensive through parts of New South Wales and Victoria. Areas of very much above-average soil moisture persisted across South Australia, western New South Wales, and north-western Victoria, with isolated pockets in central inland Western Australia, the southern Northern Territory, and south-western Queensland.

Soil moisture was generally close to average elsewhere.

Evaporative stress remained elevated across parts of western and eastern Australia

During August, areas of below-average actual evapotranspiration became more extensive across parts of western and eastern Australia, particularly in Queensland, Tasmania, the north-west of Western Australia, and coastal areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Evapotranspiration was generally average to above average across much of inland Australia and the northern tropics, where it was not limited by soil moisture.

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 August 2026 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• large areas of Western Australia, particularly in the north-west and south
• large areas of central and eastern Queensland
• parts of north-eastern and the south coast of New South Wales
• parts of southern, western and eastern Victoria
• much of Tasmania.

Throughout the month, evaporative stress increased across much of Tasmania and remained elevated across the west and south-west of Western Australia, central and eastern Queensland, inland parts of north-eastern New South Wales, and coastal and adjacent inland areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Evaporative stress eased across much of inland New South Wales and Victoria, as well as south-eastern South Australia, broadly corresponding with average to above-average rainfall.

Low streamflow in southern Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland

Streamflow was lower than average at 28% of the 912 sites with available data across Australia in August (based on records since 1975). Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded in August at 8% of sites (including 1% of sites with lowest on record). Below average rainfall, particularly in the west of Western Australia, Tasmania and eastern Australia, reduced root-zone soil moisture and runoff in those catchments. Regions with lower-than-average streamflow included:

• across the North East Coast drainage division (16% of 165 sites) with 5% sites in the central east and south were very much below average. A single site in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division.
• northern and eastern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin drainage division (22% of 340 sites) with 4% sites in the north-east were very much below average.
• across the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (33% of 111 sites) were below average.
• across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (28% of 102 sites) with 4% sites were very much below average.
• across Tasmania (72% of 21 sites) with 29% sites in the east were very much below average.
• across the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (90% of 76 sites) with 49% sites were very much below average.
• in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (27% of 15 sites).

Streamflow in August was average at 44% of sites spread across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 28% of sites, with 10% of sites recording very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975), mostly in northern Australia and at some sites in Southern Australia.

Low water storage levels in Victoria, the Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of August, total water storage across Australia (302 public storages) was at 70.9% of capacity, an increase of 1.7% from the previous month, and an increase of 2.7% from this time last year. Storage volumes decreased in 141 storages during August, with 548 storages below 50% capacity at the end of the month in:

• south-eastern Queensland
• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria
• Perth urban storages
• central parts of Tasmania.

Declines in storages over the past month across the country were associated with dry catchment conditions and reduced inflows to major storages.

North East Coast and South-eastern Australia

In the North East Coast drainage division, overall storage levels remained relatively high, ending August at 75.0% of capacity. Several storages remained below 50%, including Fairbairn Dam, Queensland’s second-largest storage, which finished the month at 28.8%—down 2.0% from last month, but up 8.6% from last year.

Overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin was 67.2% at the end of August, up 6.5% from last month, but 2.0% lower than this time last year. Northern Basin increased by 1.5% during August, finishing at 57.3%, and down 21.9% since last year. Menindee Lakes in western New South Wales a slightly down 2.4% from previous month and finished at 23.4% of capacity at the end of August, and 52.6% lower than this time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of August, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 80% of accessible capacity, except for those in Melbourne and Perth.

Perth’s surface water storages were at 39.3% of accessible capacity at the end of August, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month, and lower (3.7%) than at the same time last year.

Melbourne's water storages increased by 2.9% from the previous month, finishing at 69.4% capacity.

Below average groundwater levels in areas of southern and south-eastern Australia

Groundwater conditions in August showed a north-south contrast, with below average groundwater levels dominating much of southern Australia. Regions with a high proportion of lower-than-average groundwater levels included:

• the Murray–Darling Basin, particularly the southern Basin and in the Riverina
• Victoria and parts of New South Wales
• along the South Australia–Victoria border
• south-west of Western Australia including the Perth region
• Tasmania, especially northern and eastern parts of the region.

Bores with average groundwater levels were scattered across Southern Australia, parts of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

Groundwater levels were above average across northern Australia, and in scattered locations elsewhere.

Over the 5-year period to August 2026, around 26% of bores with 5-year trend showed a rising trend, mainly in northern Australia, parts of southern Murray–Darling Basin, northern New South Wales and isolated areas of Victoria, while 29% showed a declining 5-year trend were more widespread across southern Australia, reflecting the dry conditions in the south-west of Western Australia, southern Murray-Darling Basin, northern New South Wales, southern Victoria and Tasmania. Over the 10- and 20-year periods, groundwater levels were mostly stable across Australia. Persistent declining trends were observed in parts of southern Australia, while rising trends occurred in parts of the southern Murray-Darling Basin and northern New South Wales.

Recent decades

State of the Climate 2024 reported that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Even with occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025.

The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

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