Tropical Climate Update

Tropical Cyclone 'Kirrily' crosses the Queensland coast on 25 January

Tropical Cyclone (TC) 'Kirrily' formed in the Coral Sea on 24 January and peaked in intensity as a Category 3 system as it approached the Queensland coast. It was the third tropical cyclone of the 2023–24 season in the Australian region and the second to make landfall. TC 'Kirrily' crossed the coast just north of Townsville on the evening of 25 January as a Category 2 system.

TC 'Kirrily' bought heavy rainfall and strong winds to the region north of Townsville as it approached and crossed the coast. Notable daily rainfall totals on 26 January 2024 include 140 mm at Allingham Forest Drive, 113.6 mm at Victoria Sugar Mill, 108 mm at Ingham Composite, 90 mm at Bambaroo and 86 mm at Mutarnee Store.

Ex TC 'Kirrily' has since been downgraded to a low pressure system and continues to be slow moving over western Queensland, producing heavy rain and associated flooding. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the direction ex TC 'Kirrily' may take and it could possibly move to the north-west over the Northern Territory or towards the east coast of north Queensland.

There is a small chance that this system may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and develop further on Friday 2 February, causing winds to strengthen over Gulf coastal waters; however, it is unlikely redevelop into a tropical cyclone. Queensland and Northern Territory communities are advised to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.

For up-to-date information on cyclone warnings, visit the Bureau’s Cyclone Forecast Service

The Positive Indian Ocean Dipole event nears its end

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is near its end, with the latest weekly IOD index (to 28 January) being below +0.4 °C for the first time since August 2023. IOD events typically breakdown as the monsoon trough shifts south into the southern hemisphere.

Due to the strength of the positive IOD in 2023, the event decay has been later than usual. The majority climate models surveyed indicate the IOD will be neutral until at least April.

Normal wet season rainfall to return to northern Australia

Normal wet season rainfall is expected to return to northern Australia this week. The monsoon tough that brought rainfall to the tropics has eased, but slow-moving thunderstorms may cause isolated heavy rainfall in some locations, especially in the Northern Territory.

The forecast rainfall could lead to flash flooding in wet catchments in smaller river systems, but larger catchments are likely to be unaffected. The monsoon is not forecast to return to northern Australia this week. 

Madden–Julian Oscillation to move to the Western Pacific

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Western Pacific (phase 7). International climate models generally suggest the moderate to strong MJO  will continue to move eastwards and weaken. At this time of year, when the MJO is in the phase 7 in the Western Pacific, the chance of above average rainfall typically increases across north-eastern Australia.