Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 24 November, thunderstorms, some severe, were widespread across eastern Australia and Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina impacted coastal areas of the Northern Territory (NT) and the Kimberley (see section below for details on Fina). Tropical moisture and a surface trough across eastern Australia generated severe thunderstorms that resulted in heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large to giant hail in south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 mm to more than 400 mm were recorded across large areas of the NT's Top End. Weekly rainfall totals of 15 mm to 100 mm, and locally higher were recorded across the Cape York Peninsula and south-east Queensland.

During the week, low-intensity to severe heatwaves were observed across eastern parts of Western Australia (WA), southern parts of the NT and much of Queensland, with extreme heatwave conditions in parts of the Queensland's west and north.

Maximum temperatures were above average across large parts of northern Australia on most days during the week but were below average around the Top End of the NT and WA's north-west coast. Maximum temperatures were 4 to 8 °C above average on 19 to 23 November in parts of WA’s interior and inland parts of the NT and Queensland.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina

Severe tropical Cyclone Fina formed early on 19 November as the first tropical cyclone of the 2025/26 Australian season. Fina formed in the Arafura Sea off the north coast of the NT's Top End, about 315 km north north-east of Darwin. Fina tracked east north-eastward, briefly reaching Category 2 intensity late on 19th. Fina weakened to Category 1 on 20 November under the influence of moderate vertical wind shear and started to track south then south-westward towards the Northern Territory coast. On 21 November, Fina re-intensified to a Category 2 and later in the day made landfall on the Cobourg Peninsula. On 22 November, Fina intensified to a Category 3 (severe strength) as it moved through the Van Diemen and Beagle Gulfs between the Tiwi Islands and the Darwin region. The tropical cyclone's eye passed around 50 km north of Darwin, bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall to the Darwin region and surrounds.

On 23 November, Fina intensified further to Category 4 as it moved parallel to the Northern Territory coast and maintained this intensity as it approached the Kimberley coast of Western Australia. Fina crossed the coast near Berkley River Mouth at 9:30 pm AWST on 24 November as a Category 3 system. As of 8:50 am AWST 25 November, Fina is at Category 1 strength and is weakening as it travels over the Kimberley's north-east coast.

Fina was the strongest tropical cyclone to pass within 100 km of Darwin since Cyclone Tracy in December 1974. The strongest observed wind gusts were 109 km/hr at Croker Island Airport on 21 November, and 107 km/hr at Darwin Airport on 22 November. Daily rainfall totals of 100 to 300 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across the Darwin region in the 24 hours to 9am on 23 November, causing localised flooding. The highest daily total was 430.0 mm at Middle Point in the 24 hours to 9am on 23 November. This is a November daily record for the Northern Territory, and the fourth-highest November daily rainfall total on record for Australia.

For the latest 7-day forecasts, go to the Tropical cyclone forecast page.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 29 November to 12 December, issued on 24 November, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for northern Queensland and a small part of the north-eastern Top End of the NT, with the highest likelihood over Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. Elsewhere in tropical parts of the NT and WA, rainfall is likely to be below average during this period.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across eastern parts of the Top End, and Cape York Peninsula, with above average temperatures likely in the Kimberley region of WA, north-western NT, and north-western and eastern Queensland. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for northern Queensland and a small part of the north-eastern Top End, and below average for the Kimberley region, and southern and central parts of the NT.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), has remained relatively stationary in the Western Pacific region over the past week, and as of 22 November, remains at moderate strength. Forecasts from ACCESS-S and other international models suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen as it progresses eastwards across the Western Pacific and towards the Western Hemisphere and Africa over the coming fortnight. At this time of year, the MJO in the Western Pacific typically enhances rainfall across parts of northern Australia.

International conditions

Tropical activity

While typhoon activity has been relatively quiet in the north-west Pacific over the last week, torrential rain caused severe flooding and landslides in central Vietnam, with more than 1.5 metres of rain falling in three days. Heavy rainfall has also caused flooding in parts of Thailand and Malaysia.

A tropical depression is currently tracking over the Philippines and is forecast to strengthen as it moves into the South China Sea and approach the Vietnamese coast in the coming days.