Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 15 December, daily showers and isolated thunderstorms impacted the tropical north. Weekly rainfall totals of 25 to 100 mm, and locally higher falls, were recorded across northern parts of Western Australia and north-western and central parts of the Northern Territory, and parts of tropical Queensland. The highest weekly total (at a Bureau gauge) was 195.0 mm at Tipperary in the Northern Territory, which included the highest daily total of 119.0 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on 13 December. 

Low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions eased during the week across large parts of Western Australia, interior parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland, but intensified across north-eastern parts of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 20 December to 2 January, issued on 15 December, indicates that rainfall is likely to be above average for much of the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley, as well as parts of the West Australian interior, much of the Northern Territory, and areas in Far North and central Queensland.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across parts of eastern and southern Queensland, with areas of northern Western Australia and parts of the Northern Territory likely to be below average. Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of the tropical north.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bakung

Tropical low 05U formed on 11 December to the west of Sumatra. 05U strengthened rapidly and reached tropical cyclone intensity on 12 December while moving west-south-westwards in Indonesia's Area of Responsibility. Indonesian authorities named it Bakung. Severe Tropical Cyclone Bakung peaked at category 3 intensity as it moved into the north-west corner of Australia's Area of Responsibility on 14 December, before weakening as it slowed and turned eastwards. As of 2:00 am AWST 16 December, Bakung is at category 1 strength and is expected to be downgraded to a tropical low later on 16 December well to the west-northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Island.

Tropical low 03U

Tropical low 03U is slowly developing, as of 16 December, to the south of Indonesia and tracking south-westward across the Indian Ocean. By 18 December, the chances of intensification into a tropical cyclone are low (10 to 15%), becoming moderate (25 to 35%) from 19 December.

Tropical low 07U

Tropical low 07U is developing in the Arafura Sea and tracking slowly southward towards the eastern side of the Top End of the Northern Territory or western Gulf of Carpentaria later in the week. Current forecasts, as of 16 December, indicate no more than a 25% likelihood of 07U becoming a tropical cyclone.

For the latest 7-day forecasts, please visit the tropical cyclone forecast page.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been weak or indiscernible in recent days. Forecasts from the Bureau's model and other international models suggest the MJO is likely to remain weak or indiscernible for the coming fortnight.

A weak or indiscernible MJO means that it is unlikely to have a significant influence on Australian weather over the coming fortnight. This also means that the MJO is unlikely to contribute to favourable conditions for monsoon onset over Australia. 

However, the absence of an active MJO near Australia does not mean a monsoon can not develop. Recent changes in tropical wind patterns, and current forecasts, indicate monsoon conditions may affect parts of northern Australia before the end of December.

International conditions

A La Niña is currently underway in the tropical Pacific. It is forecast to be relatively short-lived, with forecast models indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely in early 2026. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, active since August, has been weakening in recent weeks and is near its end. See the Southern hemisphere monitoring page for details of the current La Niña event.