Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 5 January 2026, much of tropical northern Australia has seen heavy rainfall. The monsoon trough was situated over northern Australia for the first part of the fortnight, with the northern Australian monsoon onset, as measured at Darwin, occurring on 23 December 2025.

Northern Queensland experienced heavy to intense rainfall and thunderstorms as deep tropical moisture interacted with a monsoon low and an embedded trough over western Queensland, while further east, there was enhanced onshore winds along the north-eastern coast. These systems led to widespread flooding across the region.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley (see below) made landfall as a Category 3 system on the Kimberley coast on 30 December 2025. It weakened to a tropical low by 31 December and tracked east across north-western Australia before dissipating.

Fortnightly totals of more than 100 mm were recorded across northern Australia, with totals exceeding 200 mm across much of northern Queensland and scattered areas of northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Widespread totals exceeding 400 mm were recorded across Queensland's Channel Country and adjacent inland areas, while along the Townsville coast localised totals exceeded 1000 mm.

The highest fortnightly total was 1353.8 mm at Cowley Beach (Defence) in Queensland, with most of this rainfall occurring in the week ending 5 January 2026. The highest daily total was 414.0 mm at Innisfail Wharf Alert in Queensland in the 24 hours to 9am on 31 December 2025.

Maximum temperatures were below average across large parts of northern Australia on most days during the past fortnight. Daily maximum temperature anomalies were up to 6 °C below average across large parts of the tropics, with some localised areas of western Queensland more than 12 °C below average on some days.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 10 to 23 January 2026, issued on 5 January 2026, shows roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for much of the far north of Australia, with southern parts of the Northern Territory, and adjacent parts of Western Australia and Queensland likely to have below average rainfall for the fortnight. Some parts of Cape York Peninsula, and coastal areas of Queensland south of Bowen have an increased chance of above average rainfall for the fortnight, depending on the influence of the monsoon and tropical weather systems.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weak or indiscernible as of 3 January 2026. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest that the MJO is likely to remain weak until around mid-January. Beyond this time, most models suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen in the Western Pacific region. This would likely weaken trade winds in the western Pacific, which could weaken the current La Niña event. It may also contribute to enhanced rainfall in parts of northern Australia.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley

A low developed in the Indian Ocean to the north-west of the Kimberley, Western Australia, on 28 December. It rapidly intensified into Tropical Cyclone Hayley as it tracked southwards on 29 December. Hayley intensified to Category 4 strength as it turned eastwards towards the western Kimberley coast, north-west of Broome, with the system developing a clear eye early on 30 December. However, this feature was short lived, dissipating as the system experienced increasing wind shear as it approached the coastline. Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley made landfall as a Category 3 system on the Kimberley's northern Dampier Peninsula on 30 December 2025. It had weakened to a tropical low by 31 December and subsequently tracked east across the Kimberley before dissipating.

Hayley marks the third tropical cyclone in the Australian region to reach Category 4 strength this season. This is the highest number of Category 4 systems by 5 January in a season since reliable records began in 1980–81.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Tropical Cyclone Iggy was a very short-lived tropical cyclone. It developed as a low to the south-west of the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 December, passing Christmas Island and strengthening as it moved south-eastwards towards Australia. On 1 January, the system developed into a Category 1 system and was named Iggy. However, by 2 January, Iggy had weakened back to a tropical low.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna

A tropical low in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean developed into Tropical Cyclone Jenna on 5 January 2026, just east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, tracking southwards. Late on 5 January, Jenna strengthened to a Category 2 system. Jenna is forecast to move to the south-west and intensify over the coming days, as it tracks away from the Australian region.

See the tropical cyclone 7-day forecast for the latest advice on systems in the Australian region.