Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

In the week ending 30 March, Severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle brought widespread rainfall to the Northern Territory's Top End and much of Western Australia's north and west. Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 200 mm, and locally higher, were recorded across northern and western parts of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, isolated areas of the Cape York Peninsula and the north-eastern coast of Queensland. The highest daily total (at a Bureau gauge) was 328.0 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on 28 March at Winning in Western Australia during the passage of Severe TC Narelle. This was also the highest weekly total at a Bureau gauge for the week ending 9 am on 30 March.

Widespread flooding continued in some catchments across the tropical north following significant rainfall during March and earlier in the wet season. A number of moderate to major flood warnings remain current across central Queensland and eastern and northern catchments of the Northern Territory. The Daly and Katherine rivers again reached major flood levels at the Police Station and Katherine respectively, while a moderate flood warning was issued for the Gascoyne River in Western Australia, associated with the passage of Severe TC Narelle. For the latest flood advice, please visit warnings and alerts page.

Weekly maximum temperatures were close to average across much of northern Australia. Northern parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara had daily maximum temperature anomalies up to 10 °C below average due to the passage of Severe TC Narelle. Weekly temperature anomalies were close to average for much of tropical Australia. Carnarvon Airport (80 years of data) recorded 30.4 °C on 27 March, which was the highest minimum temperature for March. Additionally, there were some sites across Queensland and the Northern Territory that had the lowest overnight temperature records later in the week.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 4 to 17 April, issued on 30 March, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for eastern parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the Northern Territory Top End. Elsewhere, rainfall for the fortnight is generally likely to be below average.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across most of the Cape York Peninsula and north-eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and above average elsewhere. The minimum temperature forecast is mixed, with warmer nights likely across most of northern Australia, except in parts of the Kimberley where cooler nights are favoured, and inland Queensland and the northern Northern Territory where there's roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average nights.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Tropical low 34U formed near Vanuatu on 15 March and became Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle in the Coral Sea on 17 March. Narelle moved west toward far north-eastern Queensland, rapidly intensifying to severe strength, reaching Category 5 on 19 March. It made its first landfall north of Coen, Queensland around 7 am AEST on 20 March at Category 4 strength. The system weakened over Cape York Peninsula before re-intensifying to a Category 3 in the Gulf of Carpentaria and making a second landfall near Cape Shield, Northern Territory, on 22 March at 4 am CST.

Narelle continued to track west as an ex-TC into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and across the northern Kimberley before tracking south-westwards off the Western Australia coast and re-intensifying. Narelle turned southwards and strengthened to Category 4, before crossing the coast near Coral Bay around 2:30 pm AWST on 27 March as a Category 3 system. The system weakened as it progressed south-eastwards across the state into the Southern Ocean, but brought heavy rainfall to the Perth region and parts of the south-west.

Wind gusts exceeded 120 km/h at a number of sites along the Pilbara coast on 26 and 27 March, including:

• 200 km/h at Learmonth Airport, the second highest wind gust recorded at the station (49 years of data)
• 185 km/h at Varanus Island, an annual record for the site (24 years of data)
• 170 km/h at Barrow Island Airport, an annual record for the site (24 years of data)
• 163 km/h at Thevenard Island, the annual highest daily wind gust recorded at the station (24 years of data).

Daily rainfall totals exceeded 200 mm across several stations in the north-west of Western Australia:

• 231.4 mm at Learmonth Airport on 27 March
• 208.0 mm at Barrow Island Airport on 27 March, a monthly record for the site (28 years of data)
• 328.0 mm at Winning on 28 March, an annual record for the site (129 years of data).
• 208.0 mm at Williambury on 28 March.

Severe TC Narelle was the tenth TC in the Australian region this season (2025–26), the sixth TC that has reached severe tropical cyclone intensity, and the sixth to make landfall. It is only the second system, after Severe TC Ingrid in March 2005, to have made landfall three times at Severe intensity, since reliable records of intensity began in 1980-81, and only the third to have made landfall in each of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

As of 29 March, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength in the Western Hemisphere. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest that over the coming week the MJO is likely to progress eastwards across the Western Hemisphere and weaken.