Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to move into the Indian Ocean today (Tuesday 24 March 2026). It will rapidly intensify back into a tropical cyclone and approach the west coast of Western Australia later this week.
But there is still a range of possible scenarios of where Narelle could track. This includes a rare coastal crossing close to Perth.
Once the cyclone crosses the coast, rain will extend over the Wheatbelt before the system moves offshore and into the southern ocean early next week. A tropical cyclone this far south in Western Australia is a rare occurrence. The last time this happened was in 2021 when Tropical Cyclone Seroja crossed the coast near Kalbarri as a severe category 3 system causing widespread damage. A coastal crossing near Perth is even less common.
Tropical cyclones have had significant impacts in south-west WA in the past. Notably Tropical Cyclone Ned in 1989 and Tropical Cyclone Alby in 1978. So, if you're along the west coast of WA, including Perth, be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts from the Bureau across the week.
It's not unusual to see differences in weather models when forecasting tropical systems. They are dynamic in nature and move swiftly.
The models will continue to update in the coming days, and so will our forecasts.
Regardless of which path Narelle takes, the western and south-western parts of WA will likely be affected this week. Widespread showers, storms and strong to damaging winds are possible.
Our 7-day forecast is a reliable resource to help you prepare. Stay up to date via the tropical cyclone forecast or the BOM Weather app.