Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for May to July 2026.
Let's start by looking at recent conditions.
April temperatures have been above average across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia. Much of northern Australia has had average to below average temperatures.
April rainfall has been below average for large parts of south-western, central and eastern Australia. This includes much of New South Wales and southern Queensland where significant rainfall deficiencies have emerged over the past 7 months.
Rainfall was above average in parts of the west, and in the north.
The northern wet season spans the 7 months from October to April. Across the tropical north, rainfall has been well above average this wet season.
Repeated monsoon bursts, tropical lows and several tropical cyclones brought widespread heavy rainfall, leading to major flooding in several catchments in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Wet season rainfall in Australia's north has increased by around 20% since 1994.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, which passed through the northern Coral Sea in early April was the 11th tropical cyclone in the Australian region this season. This is close to our average of 10 and while 6 cyclones made landfall this season, 7 reached severe tropical cyclone strength, category 3 or higher.
Modelled root zone soil moisture is above average across the north as well as much of South Australia. Soil moisture has been below average for parts of the south, and for parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.
Streamflow for April to date has been below average for many sites across the east and south-west. In the north, streamflow has been above average at most sites.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 67% full. Several sites across the east and south-west are less than 50% full.
Storages for the Murray–Darling Basin are currently at 48%, about 7% lower than this time last year.
Looking ahead, rainfall for May to July is likely to be below average across much of eastern Australia and in parts of the south, with the strongest signal for below average rainfall in May.
Elsewhere, there are around equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Above average daytime temperatures are very likely across most of the country from May to July.
There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for much of eastern and parts of south-western Australia. Warmer daytime temperatures can further dry out the landscape.
May to July night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia, except in some inland areas of New South Wales and Queensland.
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are forecast for much of the Australian region.
The tropical Pacific has rapidly warmed in recent weeks, and models suggest a possible shift to El Niño by late winter. We would also need to see a response in the atmosphere before we consider El Niño established.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is just one influence on Australia's rainfall and temperature. The long-range forecast responds to all the ongoing changes in our climate system.
In summary, this May to July, we're likely to see: below average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, warmer than average days and nights across the country and a possible shift to El Niño by late winter.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts.
We'll see you next time.
Let's start by looking at recent conditions.
April temperatures have been above average across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia. Much of northern Australia has had average to below average temperatures.
April rainfall has been below average for large parts of south-western, central and eastern Australia. This includes much of New South Wales and southern Queensland where significant rainfall deficiencies have emerged over the past 7 months.
Rainfall was above average in parts of the west, and in the north.
The northern wet season spans the 7 months from October to April. Across the tropical north, rainfall has been well above average this wet season.
Repeated monsoon bursts, tropical lows and several tropical cyclones brought widespread heavy rainfall, leading to major flooding in several catchments in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Wet season rainfall in Australia's north has increased by around 20% since 1994.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila, which passed through the northern Coral Sea in early April was the 11th tropical cyclone in the Australian region this season. This is close to our average of 10 and while 6 cyclones made landfall this season, 7 reached severe tropical cyclone strength, category 3 or higher.
Modelled root zone soil moisture is above average across the north as well as much of South Australia. Soil moisture has been below average for parts of the south, and for parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.
Streamflow for April to date has been below average for many sites across the east and south-west. In the north, streamflow has been above average at most sites.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 67% full. Several sites across the east and south-west are less than 50% full.
Storages for the Murray–Darling Basin are currently at 48%, about 7% lower than this time last year.
Looking ahead, rainfall for May to July is likely to be below average across much of eastern Australia and in parts of the south, with the strongest signal for below average rainfall in May.
Elsewhere, there are around equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Above average daytime temperatures are very likely across most of the country from May to July.
There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for much of eastern and parts of south-western Australia. Warmer daytime temperatures can further dry out the landscape.
May to July night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia, except in some inland areas of New South Wales and Queensland.
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are forecast for much of the Australian region.
The tropical Pacific has rapidly warmed in recent weeks, and models suggest a possible shift to El Niño by late winter. We would also need to see a response in the atmosphere before we consider El Niño established.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is just one influence on Australia's rainfall and temperature. The long-range forecast responds to all the ongoing changes in our climate system.
In summary, this May to July, we're likely to see: below average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, warmer than average days and nights across the country and a possible shift to El Niño by late winter.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts.
We'll see you next time.
Long-range forecast: May to July 2026
30 April 2026
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the months ahead.