Hello from the Bureau. It's Angus here. Today is Tuesday. This is the National Weather Forecast, and we're going to focus in on Wednesday's weather across the nation.

And it's really north-western and south-eastern parts of the country where our eyes are on for potential rainfall tomorrow. In the north-west, we've got Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which is likely to intensify from a category one to a category three severe tropical cyclone off the Western Australia coastline during Wednesday.

Meanwhile, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms through many of these areas down here, including parts of Tasmania, much of Victoria, parts of SA, New South Wales and even ACT. As we go around the states, for once this wet season,

Queensland is looking to be one of the driest parts of the country. Rainfall at a minimum across the state here, just a couple of light showers speckled across the south-east coast. Maybe a light shower around Mackay and around the far north.

But all of that rainfall is brief. It is sparse and lots of people, even in those regions that have got the shower symbols, may well miss it all and have a dry day.

Completely dry and sunny through the interior and temperatures mostly about or just north of 30°C. There will be some large waves along the southern coastline,

and those large waves will also affect the northern coast of New South Wales, particularly north of Newcastle, where we've got a Hazardous Surf Warning in place, and there'll be a couple of showers for this northern stretch of coast as well around the likes of Coffs Harbor up to Tweed Heads.

A fine bright and sunny day expected for Wollongong, Newcastle and Sydney through the centre here and very fine on and west of the mountain ranges as well.

We will see a few showers develop in the afternoon around the southern mountains, though, the Snowy Mountains, ACT and the Southern Tablelands and possibly a thunderstorm down in those areas towards the back half of the day.

Unsettled and unstable conditions build across Victoria as we push into the afternoon, so mostly bright and sunny through the morning hours, but into the afternoon, look for showers and storms to really bubble up across the state and it will be very hit and miss.

So one of those days where you might get a shower or storm directly overhead, that brings you a quick 10mm to 15mm, but 1km to 2km down the road, they get nothing at all. So the risk is there for many people, but a lot of areas will miss out.

In Melbourne itself, the risk looks highest through the afternoon between about 3pm and 6pm., a high of 27°C there. Just a note, it will be the last warm day for some time in Victoria.

Cold winds push through overnight and it will be much chillier for Thursday and Friday.

We also have that patchy hit and miss wet weather right across the state of Tasmania on Wednesday too. For most of the day it will be a mild northerly wind, so for the times that it's not raining, which is most of the day in most of the state, it will be quite pleasant outdoors, although probably a little cloudy.

Overnight, as we move into Thursday morning, that wind will shift to a much stronger and much colder south-westerly, so chillier temperatures for the rest of the week.

And I hate to keep saying it, I sound like a broken record, but hit and miss showers for large parts of South Australia too,

including the Eyre Peninsula, the Yorke and Fleurieu Peninsulas as well, through the Flinders, through Adelaide, the Murraylands, the Riverlands and right across the upper and lower south-east.

And again, one of those days where a thunderstorm could easily bring you 10mm or 15mm. But outside of that, most people will get absolutely zilch in the rain gauge.

The one spot where severe thunderstorms look a little more likely, is the Eyre Peninsula, where we could see some areas of damaging wind or large hail. Temperatures in the high 20s in the south and the mid 30s further north.

It will be another fine day across Perth on Wednesday. 32°C, mostly sunny skies, a similar story for Bunbury and up towards Geraldton as well.

Cloudier and cooler between Albany and Eucla. We'll see some influence from the tropical cyclone up across the Pilbara, though with strong winds, as well as the chance of some rain and storms around Karratha. Potentially some very large waves along that northern coast as well.

They could also impact interior parts of the Gascoyne and Pilbara, but not likely to quite get out towards Exmouth or Carnarvon during the day on Wednesday. That could occur later in the week.

Here is the track of the tropical cyclone in the coming few days. It's likely to increase from a tropical low to a category two, then to a category three during Wednesday afternoon, that is classified as a severe tropical cyclone.

And if we were to play this map out to Friday, potentially a category four system by the end of the week, you can see it's quite a long way away from the coastline.

During Wednesday and Thursday, several hundred kilometers. But there will certainly be some skirting weather impacts around the likes of Port Hedland and the rest of the Pilbara, with gale force winds, heavy rain and storms and some very large waves.

So out towards the west of this map around Broome in Port Hedland,

certainly some gusty winds, maybe some storms as the tropical cyclone makes its way westwards over open waters for the remainder of the tropical north, there will be some hit and miss shower and storm activity.

Not as much as we've seen through most days in the last couple of weeks, and temperatures continuing to track along in the low to mid 30s with high humidity.

This time we're looking at fine weather from Tennant Creek right down to Uluru with temperatures again in the mid 30s.

Stay up to date with the latest through the BOM website and social media channels. That's all from me for today, but we'll be back with another one tomorrow. Thanks for watching.