Hello from the Bureau with an update on Tropical Cyclone Maila in the Solomon Sea. Now, in the last 12 to 24 hours, we've seen a weakening. As you can see, yesterday we had these spiralling bands coming into a very intense tropical cyclone, but overnight and this morning we've lost that signature in the cloud pattern and you can really see that weakening in the water vapor imagery with these spiralling bands kind of disappearing. Also note that sustained convection around the centre of circulation and that more circular like pattern and eye feature has also disappeared overnight and this morning, which tells us that this system is currently in a weakening phase.

And that's because we're seeing stronger shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Now, what I mean by that is we're seeing strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere compared to in the lower levels, and that's kind of starting to separate the system a little bit and that's one of the features that is weakening this system. So, let's look at that in more detail. While we do have it as a category three right now, we're likely to see that weaken in the coming hours into a category two and possibly more as we get a better handle on just how much the system has weakened.

And then our next thing that we'll be watching is how this cyclone interacts with Papua New Guinea. This is a mountainous peninsula of Papua New Guinea, and that's going to have big impacts on where the cyclone tracks, but also the intensity of the cyclone. If it does track further to the north, we're going to see it weakened more and it may only be a trough or a tropical low as it approaches the Queensland coast next week. But currently, we expect it to be further south and if it does take that path, we're likely to maintain cyclone intensity as we move through the weekend and into early next week, as it approaches far northern Queensland coast.

So, we'll be watching that closely in the coming days and that's why it's vital to stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings and if you live in far northern Queensland, continue to check back with the latest track maps issued every six hours. So, let's look at all this in more detail. Here's just one scenario. We've still got a decent system here, a fairly strong system as we move through Friday and Saturday, but notice it weakens quickly as it starts interacting with the peninsula of Papua New Guinea and maybe interacting with more dry air and stronger shear as well, as I mentioned earlier.

And that means we might only see a tropical low or trough impacting the northern Queensland coast into early next week. But I must stress, this is just one scenario, and there is a range of scenarios that could occur, where it goes further north and weakens, or further south and maintains cyclone strength over the weekend and into early next week. And one other way we can show the impacts on the Queensland coast aren't really expected to occur until we get to Monday night or Tuesday is looking at our total rainfall.

With these southerly winds wrapping around this system we're going to keep that rainfall offshore until we get to that Monday afternoon and into Tuesday time frame, when we'll start to see the rain and wind start to pick up along the Queensland coast. But those impacts are highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of Tropical Cyclone Maila. So, it is important to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and app. We’ll issue track maps every six hours, so make sure you listen to those, particularly if you're in far northern Queensland.