South East Queensland: Future outlook
This section looks forward 12 months and considers what water assets, claims and commitments might affect the region's water resources.
Future prospects
Table N31 shows that there is a deficit/surplus of available water assets over water liabilities and future commitments that are expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date.
| Volume ML | |
| Total water assets as at 30 June 2015 | 2,478,828 |
| dead storage | (11,008) |
| less total water liabilities as at 30 June 2015 | 0 |
| Subtotal | 2,467,820 |
| less future water commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date: | |
| expected diversion of surface water | (312,790) |
| expected extraction of groundwater | (6,911) |
| Surplus/deficit of available water assets over water liabilities and future commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date | 2,148,119 |
| add expected inflows within 12 months of the reporting date | |
| expected net precipitation/storage inflow | 700,000 |
| expected delivery of desalinated water | 1,161 |
| expected inter-region inflow | 15,620 |
| expected delivery of water outside of region | (7,818) |
| Surplus/deficit of available water assets and expected future inflows over water liabilities and future commitments expected to be settled within 12 months of the reporting date | 2,857,082 |
The expected diversions and extractions are based on abstractions made during the 2014–15 year. Actual available storage over the next 12 months will be influenced by a number of factors such as climate, actual diversions and available volume in storages. Based on the 2014–15 year data, expected precipitation (approximately 203,500 ML) and river inflows into the storages (approximately 4,290,000 ML) will exceed the expected outflow from the region (approximately 2,850,000 ML), the expected evaporation from the storages (approximately 387,000 ML) and leakage from the storages (approximately 264,000 ML).
Marginally above average rainfall in the 2014–15 year (refer to the Climate and water overview) produced higher streamflows compared to the previous year. As a consequence, storage volumes increased across the region. If above average rainfall persists into the 2015–16 year, it is expected that the water sharing rules in the Moreton, Logan Basin and Gold Coast resource operations plans are likely to result in higher allocation announcements for all water supply schemes within the region.
For more detailed information about future water and climate predictions, including seasonal streamflow forecasts and short video summaries, please see Climate outlooks on the Bureau of Meteorology website.
Contingent water assets and contingent water liabilities
Contingent water assets
Desalinated water
Desalinated water is blended with other Gold Coast water supplies and joins the South East Queensland Water Grid. The region's storages have been full or near full since December 2010, hence the plant has been operating in 'hot standby' mode since that time to minimise operating costs. Under this mode, the plant produces 25 ML/day, twice a week. This small amount of production is necessary to keep the membranes wet and the water in the pipes fresh while retaining the capacity to increase production to 44ML/day within 24 hours and 133ML/day within 48 hours. The plant may also be called on if there are interruptions to supply in other parts of the SEQ Water Grid.
The contingent water asset associated with the Gold Coast desalination plant is the difference between the maximum operating capacity (133 ML/day) and the minimum operating rate (7 ML/day average based on hot–standby mode) and equates to 126 ML/day.
The non–extractable portion of groundwater
The groundwater management area (GMA) of the Lockyer Valley located within the Moreton water resource plan (WRP) area was the only aquifer included as a store in the water accounting statements. Within the benefitted area of the Central Lockyer Valley water supply scheme, a groundwater limit exists, which defines the entitled maximum volume that can be extracted from the benefitted area of the aquifer as 9,340 ML.
The remaining portion of the groundwater within the Lockyer Valley and all other groundwater within the South East Queensland region is considered a contingent water asset.
Groundwater aquifers do occur elsewhere within the South East Queensland region. DNRM is investigating methods to estimate aquifer storage volumes and it is anticipated that estimates will become available in future water accounts.
It is possible that a change in circumstances, including legislative or regulatory changes that alter the extraction limits, such as the setting of volumetric extraction limits within the non-benefitted area of the Lockyer Valley groundwater aquifer, would result in further portions of the groundwater being included as an asset. There is no estimate available of the total volume stored in groundwater aquifers of the South East Queensland region.
Inter-region claim on water sources within the SEQ Water Grid
The SEQ water grid extends beyond the north and east boundaries of the South East Queensland region. It includes part of the Mary WRP area (Sunshine Coast) and Stradbroke Island. Although entitlements for both supplemented and unsupplemented surface water and groundwater are managed by Seqwater in the Mary WRP area and Stradbroke Island, the volume of water to be transferred into the region cannot be predicted.
Water diverted or extracted based on these entitlements may, after treatment, be transferred into the South East Queensland region. As the volume transferred into the region will be determined by region resources, consumer demand and operational policy of the SEQ water grid, water diverted or extracted on these entitlements would be considered a contingent water asset for the region. As it is unknown what proportion of the entitlements can or may be transferred into the region, an estimate of the contingent water asset can not be made.