Seasonal Prediction of Sea Level Anomalies in the Western Pacific

Introduction

The PACCSAP project Seasonal prediction of sea-level anomalies in the Western Pacific is focused on the development and verification of seasonal forecasts for sea level for Pacific Partner Countries. These forecasts are generated using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). This is a global ocean-atmosphere coupled ensemble seasonal forecast system developed jointly by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and the CSIRO Division of Marine and Atmospheric Research (CMAR).

Gridded forecasts and skill maps are presented using a navigable map overlain with geospatial information. Summary reports on sea level anomalies for Partner Countries in PACCSAP will be available in the future.

Project background

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is acknowledged as a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste to climate change. PACCSAP is working to improve the understanding of existing and future climatic changes in the Western Pacific and impacts in the region. Sea level rise is expected to have some of the most profound impacts on islands in the Western Pacific through coastal erosion, damage to physical assets and loss of agricultural productivity due to salt water intrusion and increasing salinity.

Project objectives

The new seasonal outlooks for sea level are based on the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The forecast system consists of a data assimilation system for the initialization of the ocean, land, and atmosphere and a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. The application of dynamical physics-based models is extremely relevant in this region as there is no assumption of climate stationarity, and thus can predict unprecedented events in a changing climate. This project will deliver seasonal sea level anomalies predictions, assessment of the skill of these forecasts and outlook reports and in-house training for Pacific Partner Countries.

Under climate change sea level is predicted to rise with Pacific Island nations and Timor Leste being particularly vulnerable. This project is developing a better understanding of seasonal sea level prediction, relevant skilful forecast products for the Western Pacific and conducting in country training on the use of these products.

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