Tropical Climate Update

Monsoon Burst to Return to Northern Australia

The monsoon is set to return to northern Australia in the coming week and its return will likely bring increased rainfall across the region. This will coincide with the forecast eastward movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) into the Maritime Continent (MC) in early February.

Northern Australia has been in a monsoon break period over the last week but there were periods of storms and squalls that were experienced across the region. Further rainfall was experienced in the Kimberley region of Western Australia as a weak tropical low (10U) influenced the weather across the region, associated with the passage of an equatorial Rossby (ER) wave. The rainfall recorded was less than that received during ex-tropical cyclone Ellie at the end of December and early January, thus did not cause further flooding in the Fitzroy River catchment.

As the monsoon returns across the region this week, tropical lows may develop within it, most likely in the Indian Ocean south of the Indonesian archipelago and near the western Maritime Continent. More information on the current tropical cyclone forecast can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Outlooks

February and March are the peak period for tropical cyclone activity across northern Australia. In addition, the La Niña in the Pacific continues, so broad environmental conditions remain favourable for tropical cyclone formation.

Madden–Julian Oscillation Will Weaken and Move to the Maritime Continent

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to weaken from its moderate to strong intensity in the eastern Indian Ocean and is forecast to move over the Maritime Continent in early February. Although the MJO is forecast to weaken as it tracks across the Maritime Continent region and into the Western Pacific region, it is likely to have an influence on tropical weather through to mid-February.

Read more about the Madden–Julian Oscillation