Tropical Climate Update

Severe tropical cyclone Lola forms in the Coral Sea

Severe tropical cyclone Lola has formed in the Coral Sea and is currently located northeast of Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the South Pacific Ocean. As of Tuesday 24 October it has strengthened to a category 5 system and is expected to continue tracking to the south-west, potentially passing over Vanuatu as a severe tropical cyclone (category 3 or above). Whilst it could impact on Vanuatu and New Caledonia this week, it is not expected to move into Australia's Area of Responsibility (AOR) during its lifecycle and is unlikely to approach the mainland Australian Coast. More TC track information can be found via the Fiji Meteorological Service or via the Bureau's 7-day tropical cyclone forecast.

There has not been a tropical cyclone recorded in the Australian AOR in the Coral Sea (west of 160E) during October since reliable records began in the 1970's. However, there have been several October tropical cyclones in Fiji's AOR in the Coral Sea, including severe tropical cyclone 'Bebe' in 1972 and severe tropical cyclone 'Xavier' in 2006, which resulted in extensive damage and many fatalities in Tuvalu and Fiji. So, whilst it is unusual for one to occur, it has happened before. However, Lola is the first recorded category 5 tropical cyclone in the South Pacific during October. The current El Niño typically favours increased tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific (whilst reducing tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region), due to the altered sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns in the region east of the Australian tropics (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/south-pacific/).

Localised heatwaves are likely for northern Australia

Meanwhile, in northern Australia, hot daytime temperatures and localised heatwaves are likely over the next few days. Very high temperatures are possible, up to 40°C in some locations in the Northern Territory before cooler air is likely to enter the tropics later in the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible. These conditions are likely to lead to elevated fire dangers across northern Australia, with extreme and catastrophic ratings possible later this week in some locations.  

Madden–Julian Oscillation to strengthen over the coming week

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Most surveyed models indicate an MJO pulse is likely to strengthen in the coming week. However, there is disagreement between models regarding the location of the pulse. Some models suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen in the Western Pacific while others forecast development of the MJO over the eastern Pacific or tropical Americas regions.